Polling Memo: ObamaCare & the Generic Ballot

Is ObamaCare Affecting Democrats’ Chances at the House?

While President Obama remains in denial, ignoring the facts and living in his own ObamaCare fairytale, his approval on HealthCare speaks reality as the trend line shows the President going from bad to worse.

And, what other trend line is riding the wave of the President’s ObamaCare flop? The 2014 Generic Congressional Ballot.

Since January, when new provisions of ObamaCare took effect, the President has seen a growing gap on his job approval with healthcare.   And, since January, House Democrats have lost their edge on the generic ballot, going from an average 7 point advantage to a one-point deficit today.

Furthermore, the latest from Democracy Corps’ mimics this trend as Monday’s release showed likely voters choosing the Republican over the Democrat on the generic ballot for Congress, 44 to 43 respectively.  This is a net 5 point swing since their March survey and marks the first time Democracy Corps has shown the Republican leading on the generic ballot this year.

And, it’s clear House Democrats are feeling this pressure as two to three dozen jumped ship last week and voted with Republicans on delaying the individual and employer mandates.

The fact of the matter is this. President Obama can ignore all the facts all he wants, but the harsh reality is that his ObamaCare trainwreck is affecting Democrats’ chances at the House.

POLLSTER: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps

DATE: Conducted 7/10-15/8/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 950 Respondents, 841 Likely 2014 Voter, 219 Unmarried Women; MoE ±2.89% @95% confidence interval

SOURCE: http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/948/dcor.nat.fq.wvwv.web.pdf

Dem Corps’ March Survey: http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/944/wvwv130312fq.pdf

Dem Corps’ January Survey: http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/937/dcor130114fq_FINAL.pdf

Trend lines: Pollster.com