Why House Democrats Have a Retirement Problem
It’s natural every cycle for a handful of House incumbents to call it quits and retire. But taking a look at the retirement announcements so far in the 2014 cycle, the Democrats have found themselves in a terrible situation – with races evaporating before their eyes and safe Democrat seats opening up as Republican pick-up opportunies.
As the Cook Political Report noted today, of the 15 races now rated as “Toss Ups, Democrats must defend 11, while Republicans must defend only four.”
The Democrats have seen two districts vanish for them in the retirements of Jim Matheson (UT-04) and Mike McIntyre (NC-7). These were two of the closest races in the country in 2012, and Matheson and McIntyre were in grave danger. But they are also the only candidates who could possibly hold these very conservative districts – Republican Mitt Romney garnered 67 percent of the vote in Matheson’s district and 59 percent in McIntyre’s district. Without them as candidates, the Democrats have been forced to forfeit these seats.
Meanwhile, the retirement of Carolyn McCarthy in New York’s Fourth District is notable because it opens up a new race on the map that previously did not exist. While Republican retirements have been either in seats that are safely conservative or already expected to be close races either way, this is a race that was not on either party’s radar. Now an open seat race, national Democrats will be forced to defend a seat they thought would be safe in a climate that is very much sour to their policies.
That brings us to today’s surprise announcement that Bill Owens in New York’s 21st District is retiring, illustrating just how bad things have gotten for Democrats. The race is now rated a “Toss Up” by the Cook Political Report – previously it was “Lean Democrat.” And also today, Rothenberg Political Report moved the race from “Democrat Favored” to “Toss Up.”
Owens’ retirement is just another massive blow to Democrats’ dwindling hopes for the 2014 election.
The only question remaining? Who’s next?