NRCC Morning Reads For Oct. 23, 2014: Another Debacle For Annie Kuster, GOP Sleeper Races, Westrom and Peterson Debate In MN-07
Good morning and welcome to yet another edition of NRCC Morning Reads. It is October 23, 2014 and there are just 12 days until Election Day.
Obama and Pelosi Found In Many GOP Ads:
CNN’s Deirdre Walsh explored how many television ads produced by GOP candidates and groups feature Nancy Pelosi and President Obama:
“It’s not surprising that the GOP is tying the president, whose approval ratings are at records lows, to vulnerable House and Senate Democrats.
‘But Pelosi’s image pops up even more than the president’s in the latest round of Republican campaign ads targeting Democratic incumbents and challengers. One senior House GOP strategist tells CNN that while Obama is unpopular, their internal polls show that Pelosi remains even more ‘toxic.'”
It’s not shocking that this is a pattern for ads. In fact, it has been for several years now, Walsh says. The reality is that Democrats across the country have been trying for years to run away from their record supporting Nancy Pelosi and President Obama’s agenda. So when Collin Peterson falls in line with Pelosi on passing a national energy tax or Nick Rahall joins Obama in his war on coal, voters are going to hear about it.
Another Granite State Debacle For Annie Kuster:
Has there been any other new member of Congress with more embarrassing viral moments than New Hampshire’s first-term liberal congresswoman Annie Kuster? First, she forgot to pay her property taxes and offered the excuse “life is expensive.” Next, she was caught at a town hall dismissing a constituent’s question on Benghazi and not even knowing where it was. Then, this very year, she was caught on audio saying she was “one of the strongest supporters” of Obama “in the entire United States Congress.”
Well, here’s the next fail on the list. Someone should tell her campaign staff to put away the Halloween decorations before the pro-choice rally:
Don’t Sleep On These Races:
Roll Call‘s Abby Livingston and Emily Cahn profiled a series of races that have jumped on the radar in recent days. Among them are several where the GOP is on offense:
Iowa’s 1st and 2nd Districts
President Barack Obama carried these districts by double-digit margins in 2012. And yet, less than a month before Election Day, both eastern Iowa districts have emerged as potential GOP pick-up opportunities.
House Democrats almost solely blame Rep. Bruce Braley, the Democratic nominee for Senate, for dragging down the ticket. Braley isunderperforming in his current and now open 1st District. But his impact extends to Rep. Dave Loebsack’s 2nd District, and the DCCC moved moneyto defend the congressman earlier this week.
Republicans are more optimistic about the 1st District, but conservative outside groups recently started spending in both.
The partisan breakdown of these districts present a big challenge for Republicans. But that these seats are even in play suggests election night could be ugly for Iowa Democrats.
Rating: The 1st District Tilts Democratic, the 2nd District Leans Democratic.
Rep. William Keating, D-Mass.
When the cycle started, all eyes were on the Bay State’s 6th District rematch between Democratic Rep. John F. Tierney and former state Sen. Richard Tisei. But after Tierney lost the primary, Republican hopes in that racediminished.
Instead, Democrats are now fretting the contest in the 9th District. Two-term Rep. William Keating is running for a third term in this seat, which includes Bay State’s southeastern corner to the tip of Cape Cod.
Privately, Democrats say Keating leads in polls over Republican John Chapman by single digits. That’s an uncomfortably close margin given Obama carried the district by 12 points last cycle.
But Chapman had just $130,000 in the bank as of Sept. 30, and no major GOP outside groups are spending there — yet. Polling suggests this a race that could surprise on election night.
If you’re a regular reader, you’ll know the NRCC sees a real opportunity in Iowa. Our strong House candidates there are buoyed by great candidates at the top of the ticket like Gov. Terry Branstad and Senate candidate Joni Ernst. It also shows just how dire the straits for Democrats have become when they’re playing defense in not one, but two races in Massachusetts.
Races Tilting Toward The GOP:
Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics wrote this morning that “Republicans still appear positioned for a gain of about six to nine seats. That’s been our projected range for the past few weeks, and we’re sticking with it for now, even though we can more easily imagine Republicans overperforming that range than underperforming it.”
News and Notes from the Campaign Trail:
- Out in Minnesota last night, longtime liberal Collin Peterson and Republican candidate Torrey Westrom met in their first debate. Healthcare was a main topic and Westrom questioned why Peterson hadn’t done more to repeal the disaster that is ObamaCare.
- Speaking of Massachusetts, The Boston Herald endorsed Richard Tisei in his race for the state’s 6th congressional district praising Tisei as “an experienced legislator with a long history of being able to work across the aisle as he did on Beacon Hill.”
- Republican congressman and Army veteran Chris Gibson debated the liberal out-of-touch hypocrite Sean Eldridge in New York yesterday.
And those are your NRCC Morning Reads…
-Matt