NRCC Morning Reads For Nov. 3, 2014: Zeldin Takes The Lead, Enyart Most Vulnerable House Incumbent, Colorado GOTV
Good morning and welcome, once again, to NRCC Morning Reads. Election Day is tomorrow!
Zeldin Takes The Lead:
Over the weekend, a new poll from Newsday/News 12/Siena College showed Republican candidate and Army vet Lee Zeldin jumping out to a 5 point lead over disgraced Democrat Tim Bishop. Bishop is under an ethics investigation and there’s no doubt this poll will give Zeldin a last blast of momentum in the hours before polls open.
“In the tight race for New York’s 1st Congressional District, State Sen. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley) has surged ahead of Rep. Tim Bishop (D-Southampton), according to a Newsday/News 12/Siena College poll released Saturday.
Zeldin, who trailed Bishop by 10 points in a poll conducted last month, now leads 50 percent to Bishop’s 45 percent, boosted by increasing support from independents and third-party voters. Five percent of the 670 likely voters surveyed by phone from Oct. 26 to 29 said they were undecided or had no opinion.”
Enyart, Garcia, Rahall Among Most Vulnerable House Incumbents:
Abby Livingston and Emily Cahn of Roll Call once again take a look at the most vulnerable House incumbents. In their last installment before the big day, Illinois Democrat Bill Enyart tops the list, followed closely behind by scandal-tarred Democrat Joe Garcia and longtime Obama supporter Nick Rahall.
Washington Post: Voters Say Obama Is The One Who Needs The “Change”:
The Washington Post‘s Aaron Blake is out with a story this morning exploring the fact that 6 years after America elected President Obama, voters now believe it’s Obama that needs to “change.”
“A new poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal shows that 52 percent of Americans disapprove of the president. But even many of the 42 percent who approve concede that he needs to alter his approach.
The poll also asked people how much change they would like to see in how Obama is leading the country. Fully two-thirds of registered voters said they want to see him change either a ‘great deal’ (45 percent) or ‘quite a bit’ (22 percent).”
A New Day In Digital:
Ashley Parker and Nick Corasiniti of The New York Times profiled the NRCC I.E.’s digital efforts in a piece Saturday.
“The strategy hits voters with an arc, intended to move them from potentially undecided to guaranteed Republican. First, a voter will see a series of persuasion ads, with the substance of the message progressing only after the voter has seen the previous ad in the sequence. Then, the committee moves to its ‘get out the vote’ phase, perhaps urging someone who has not requested a ballot to do so.
With that, the Republican committee staff can target a unique mobile ID — reaching an individual smartphone or tablet that is, for example, owned by someone over 65 who has requested an absentee ballot and is a registered Republican who has voted in the last three election cycles. The only thing they don’t know, again for reasons of privacy, is the name of the device’s owner.”
News and Notes from the Campaign Trail:
- The Auburn Citizen endorsed John Katko for New York’s 24th congressional district. Katko is facing off against Washington liberal Dan Maffei.
- Politico profiled Will Hurd’s campaign against Democrat Pete Gallego down in Texas.
- Out in Colorado, The Denver Post takes a look at the GOTV operation revving up to reelect Mike Coffman to Congress.
- NECN profiles the race between Richard Tisei and Democrat Seth Moulton for Massachusetts’ 6th congressional district.
Those are your NRCC Morning Reads for Monday, November 3, 2014. Just one more day…
-Matt