NRCC MEMO: NEVADA PRIMARY RESULTS
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NRCC POLITICAL and NRCC COMMUNICATIONS
DATE: JUNE 15, 2016
SUBJECT: NEVADA PRIMARY RESULTS
After an embarrassing 2014 cycle, Democrats are facing an uphill battle in Nevada. In the 3rd Congressional District, Democrats suffered through multiple recruiting failures and were left with a weak field in a district where Danny Tarkanian will greatly benefit from Rep. Joe Heck at the top of the ticket. In the 4th Congressional District, a crowded Democratic primary depleted Ruben Kihuen’s resources and allowed Cresent Hardy to get a jump start on the general election. As the national Democratic Party continues to fracture around Bernie Sanders’ insurgent bid, Nevada Democratic candidates will be forced to navigate between a splintered base lurching further and further to the left and the pragmatic demands of a general election electorate in a swing state.
NV-03: Danny Tarkanian, R vs. Jacky Rosen, D
In a district that has frustrated congressional Democrats for multiple cycles, Danny Tarkanian is in a strong position to retain the seat Congressman Joe Heck is vacating to run for Senate. Having Rep. Heck at the top of the ticket will only be a boon to Tarkanian by magnifying his turnout efforts in the Brigadier General’s former House seat. After years of service to his community, Tarkanian enters the general election with significant name ID and proven ability to fundraise. Tarkanian’s deep ties to Nevada and his years of advocacy put him in a solid position entering the general election.
After highly-touted Democrat recruit Erin Bilbray lost badly here in 2014, Democrats suffered multiple recruiting failures early on this cycle and left the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and Harry Reid scraping the bottom of the barrel for a candidate. Enter Jacky Rosen. With no political experience and little name ID, Rosen faced minimal competition in the primary and enters the general election with few tangible upsides and all the baggage of Harry Reid and Washington Democrats.
Overview: PVI: EVEN; Obama 49.3% – Romney 48.5%. Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District is located in the south Las Vegas suburbs and includes Henderson. Both the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report rate it as “Toss Up.”
NV-04: Cresent Hardy, R vs. Ruben Kihuen, D
Democrats badly underestimated Cresent Hardy in 2014 and wound up paying dearly for their overconfidence with the election night defeat of Steven Horsford. After more than a year of working across the aisle to get results for 4th District families, Hardy enters the general election as an even stronger candidate than last cycle. The combination of his legislative successes, quality constituent services, and proven ability to out-work the competition makes Hardy a formidable incumbent heading into the fall. While Democrats have spent months running to the left, Hardy has been tireless in his outreach efforts to the swing voters who will decide this election.
The crowded and competitive Democratic primary leaves Ruben Kihuen low on campaign cash and nursing a fractured base as Bernie Sanders continues to wreak havoc within the Democratic party. As Harry Reid’s handpicked carpetbagging candidate, Kihuen enters the general election with significant baggage. While his coziness with the political elite benefitted him in a competitive primary, Kihuen’s insider persona will serve him poorly during an election cycle where voters are sick of career politicians.
Overview: PVI: D+4; Obama 54.2% – Romney 43.5%. Nevada’s 4th Congressional District is located in the northern Las Vegas suburbs. The Cook Political Report rates it as “Lean Democratic” and the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report rate it as “Toss-up/Tilt Democrat.”
STATEWIDE ROUNDUP
The following are the unofficial results from Tuesday’s primary election in Nevada.
*Indicates Winner determined by AP
NV-03 – GOP Primary
415 of 415 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Danny Tarkanian* 32%
Michael Roberson 23%
Michele Fiore 18%
Andy Matthews 14%
Kerry Bowers 6%
Annette Teijeiro 5%
Sami Khal 1%
NV-03 – DEM Primary
415 of 415 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Jacky Rosen* 62%
Jesse Sbaih 13%
Barry Michaels 10%
Steve Schiffman 5%
Alex Singer 5%
Neil Waite 5%
NV-04 – GOP Primary
468 of 470 Precincts Reporting (99%)
Cresent Hardy* 77%
Mike Monroe 18%
Wayne Villines 5%
NV-04 – DEM Primary
468 of 470 Precincts Reporting (99%)
Ruben Kihuen* 40%
Lucy Flores 26%
Susie Lee 21%
Morse Arberry Jr. 6%
Mike Schaefer 3%
Rodney Smith 3%
Brandon Casutt 1%
Dan Rolle 1%