As the scandals continue to mount, the Obama Administration continues to be under fire from all sides of the spectrum.  It’s a matter of credibility, and according to the New York Times, the President is losing it.¹  What’s worse, Americans seem to agree.

The latest from NBC/WSJ asked respondents to give Obama a 1-5 rating on being “honest and straight forward.”  Let’s take a look at intensity, the 1s and 5s—1s being “very poor” and 5s being “very good.”  Only 23% gave the President a “very good” rating, down from 28% in January.  On the opposite end, 30% gave him a “very poor” rating, up from 24% six months ago.  That’s a net 11 point swing against Obama since the start of his second term.

And, get this.

In January 2009, when President Obama was first sworn in as Commander –in –Chief, a striking 41% gave him a “very good” rating in terms of being honest and straightforward, while a mere 8% said the opposite.  To put that in perspective, compared to today, when contemplating the President’s honesty, Obama has seen a net negative movement of 40 points since he first took office.

POLLSTER: Hart/McInturff for NBC/WSJ

DATE: Conducted 5/30-6/2/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,000 Adults; MoE ±3.1%

SOURCE: http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/11/18885926-nbc-newswsj-poll-affirmative-action-support-at-historic-low?lite

¹ http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/opinion/president-obamas-dragnet.html

Since the start of his 2nd term, numbers show an 11 pt swing against Obama on being “honest & straightforward.” goo.gl/tLIIN #tcot

— Topline Translator (@ToplineReport) June 13, 2013

The post Polling Memo: Is Obama Losing His Credibility? appeared first on National Republican Congressional Committee.

Living Under ObamaCare: New Record Lows

When it comes to ObamaCare, it seems like things just keep getting worse for the President.

Let’s recap.

At the end of April, 72% of voters said they were worried the cost of their healthcare insurance would go up under Obamacare.  Another 57% said they were worried they wouldn’t be able to keep their current healthcare plan.

Just in case Obama wasn’t taking it personal, CNN’s  latest Presidential approval rating for healthcare policy had Obama at 54% disapprove. Only 44% approved.

And, just in case he thought it was going away, Kaiser’s latest showed 53% saying those opposed to ObamaCare should keep trying to change or stop it.

Then there’s this:

The latest from NBC/WSJ shows Obama’s Affordable Care Act setting new record lows as 49% say it’s a bad idea.  “That’s the highest number since NBC/WSJ began polling about the ACA in 2009.”¹ Additionally, 38% say ObamaCare will make them worse off—“the highest figure the survey has found since President Barack Obama signed the law.”¹ Only 19% say it would make things better for them and their family while 39% say it simply won’t make much difference at all.  For the record, that’s over one third of Americans who say the $1.8trillion being spent on ObamaCare won’t do a thing.

The up side is that it can’t get much worse, right?  Wrong.  We’re still months away from full implementation of the law and months “before the public experiences firsthand the many ill effects it will impose on the nation’s health care system.”²

All this being said, “Think ObamaCare is unpopular now? Wait until next year.” ²

DATE: Conducted 4/28-30/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,000 Likely 2014 General Election Voters; MoE ±3.1% @ 95% confidence interval

SOURCE: Slide 27; http://d15o3uej81snwq.cloudfront.net/assets/National-YG-Network-Policy-5-2-13-Presentation-for-RELEASE1.pdf

POLLSTER: ORC International for CNN

DATE: Conducted 4/5-7/2013; Released 4/8/13

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,012 Adults; MoE ±3.0%

SOURCE: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/04/08/rel4a.pdf

POLLSTER: Kaiser Health Tracking Poll

DATE: Conducted 4/15-20/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,203 Adults; 18±; MoE ±3.0%

SOURCE: http://www.kff.org/kaiserpolls/upload/8439-T.pdf

¹ http://www.politico.com/story/2013/06/obamacare-poll-92322.html

² http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/060613-659078-obamacare-ratings-will-likely-drop-further-once-it-goes-into-effect.htm

The post Polling Memo: An ObamaCare Recap appeared first on National Republican Congressional Committee.

Next week will mark one month since the scandal surrounding the IRS’ singling out of conservative political groups erupted in Washington.  Since then, week after week, hearing after hearing, the IRS and the Obama Administration have been in the hot seat, under fire from all sides, including the American people.

According to the latest from CBS/NYT, 68% believe the actions taken by the IRS were not pure at heart in seeking to adhere to tax code policy, but were politically motivated.   When asked how personally responsible Obama was for “the [IRS’] targeting conservative and Tea Party groups for additional investigations,” data from NBC/WSJ showed a full 62% saying Obama had some degree of personal responsibility.  And, to make matters worse for the President, 55% say the whole situation raises doubts about “the overall honesty and integrity of the Obama Administration,” including 41% who say it raises “major doubts.”

To recap, that’s a majority of Americans who believe the nation’s government agency responsible for taxes is making decisions based on political preference, another majority who believe the nation’s leader is at least somewhat responsible for it and one more majority who thinks the entire scandal raises questions about the integrity of the highest, most powerful office in the land.

While the investigation continues and the hard facts are still to be divulged, one thing’s for sure, it isn’t going away anytime soon.

POLLSTER: Social Science Research Solutions for CBS/NYT

DATE: Conducted 5/31-6/4/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,022 Adults; MoE ±3.0%

SOURCE: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57587924/poll-most-say-irs-targeting-was-politics-driven/

POLLSTER: Hart/McInturff for NBC/WSJ

DATE: Conducted 5/30-6/2/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,000 Adults; MoE ±3.0%

SOURCE: http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/A_U.S.%20news/US-news-PDFs/13200%20May-June%20NBC-WSJ%20(6-4-13%20Release).pdf

The post Polling Memo: Americans on the IRS, Part 2 appeared first on National Republican Congressional Committee.

It has now been 1,168 days since the President’s Affordable Care Act known as ObamaCare became law.  Back then, a majority opposed the law.  Today, little has changed as 54% still oppose ObamaCare.  This includes 52% of women, 56% of men, 65% of seniors, 60% of Independents and 50% of moderates.  In fact, this is the worst rating for the President’s healthcare law since November 2011. Ouch.

It should come as no surprise then, scarred by the healthcare induced wave of 2010, House Democrats are feeling a little uneasy about the possibility of another ObamaCare war in 2014, and rightfully so.

In IL-10, a D+8, 57% say the implementation of ObamaCare should be stopped or delayed.  Likewise, in UT-4, an R+14, another 72% want implementation stopped or delayed.  The problem?  Both Congressman Brad Schneider of Illinois and Congressman Jim Matheson of Utah voted to keep ObamaCare.

If Democrats are to take back the house in 2014, they’re going to have to do so being on the offensive and winning in some red states.  With ObamaCare looming in the background, it looks a lot more like defense for House Democrats.

 

DATE: Conducted 5/17-18/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 923 Adults; MoE ±3.0%

SOURCE: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/05/28/healthcarepoll.pdf

 Additional Numbers: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/06/dems-2014-strategy-own-obamacare-92172_Page2.html

The post Polling Memo: Is ObamaCare Forcing Democrats on Defense? appeared first on National Republican Congressional Committee.

Two weeks ago, in the midst of brewing scandals, questions remained about the impact on President Obama as some initial polls showed his approval ratings virtually unchanged.

Today, however, headlines are telling a very different story as new numbers show the “scandals [hammering] Obama’s approval ratings.” And, where is he hurting the most? Independents.

Here are the numbers:

According to new data from Quinnipiac, 57% of Independents disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job as President.  Only 37 % approve.  That’s a 20 point negative spread.  When it comes to favorability, President Obama sits net negative among Independents 42-56 unfavorable.  The last time Quinnipiac asked this question, Obama sat barely underwater at 46-49 among Independents.  That’s an 11 point swing against the President since February.

When it comes to character traits, 56-40, Independents say the President is  NOT honest and trustworthy, followed by another 51% who say Obama does NOT  “[care] about the needs and problems of people like [them].”

Turning to Benghazi and the IRS, 53-34, Independents believe the Obama Administration deliberately misled the American people about Benghazi.  Likewise, 47-39, Independents also believe the President intentionally mislead Americans about the situation with the IRS.

Looks like the Administration’s slew of scandals are finally catching up with President Obama.

POLLSTER: Quinnipiac University

DATE: Conducted 5/22-28/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,419 LVs; MoE ±2.6%

SOURCE: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/us/us05302013.pdf/

The post Polling Memo: Are Scandals Moving Independents? appeared first on National Republican Congressional Committee.

Nearly three weeks ago, while the Obama Administration was already treading water over Benghazi, a new scandal erupted when Lois Lerner, director of Exempt Organizations for the IRS, acknowledged the “IRS had improperly scrutinized conservative groups.”¹  Since then, the Obama Administration has incessantly denied any involvement in the scandal.  In fact, in a joint press conference the President stated, “[he] first learned about it through the same news reports other people learned from.”²

The big question is—are Americans buying it?  The numbers would suggest they aren’t.

Data from last week’s Washington Post poll showed nearly three-fours (74%) of Americans believing the actions took by the IRS in intentionally targeting conservative groups was inappropriate.  Of that 74 percent, 51% said not only was it inappropriate, but it was illegal.  Respondents were then asked whether this “extra focus” on conservative groups was a “deliberate effort to harass these groups” or an “administrative mistake.”  Fifty-six percent said it was deliberate, including 59% of Independents.  Lastly, while they are relatively split, by a 45%-42% margin Americans believe the Obama Administration is trying to cover up the facts.

POLLSTER: Abt-SRBI for Washington Post

DATE: Conducted 5/16-19/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,001 Adults; MoE ±3.5%

SOURCE: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/polling/may-2013-postabc-poll/2013/05/23/16a98012-c1cb-11e2-9aa6-fc21ae807a8a_page.html

¹ http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/irs-investigation-timeline-who-knew-when/

² http://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2013/05/13/obama-on-irs-scandal-ive-got-no-patience-with-it-n1593814

The post Polling Memo: The Numbers Behind the IRS appeared first on National Republican Congressional Committee.

Today’s headline from The Hill touts an eight point lead for Democrats on the generic ballot for Congress according to Tuesday’s Washington Post poll.

A few things about that.

One:

As pointed out yesterday, Washington Post has the partisan spread pegged at 33 % Democrat and 22% Republican.  Democrats do not have an 11 point registration advantage.  Period.

Once again, for reference, on Election Night 2012, Democrats composed 38% of the electorate and Republicans composed 32.  That’s a 6 point spread.  In the 2008 wave election, Democrats still only had a 7 point turnout advantage over Republicans, 39-32 respectively.

Two:

Notice the position of the generic congressional ballot.  Normally, this particular question is placed at the beginning of a survey to gage voter’s instinctive attitudes prior to message testing and the like. It’s the best way to get an unbiased response.

Here, Washington Post places it three questions before the survey ends, right before asking about the Tea Party and after respondents are prompted to contemplate who’s to blame for the Senate not passing background checks, President Obama or Republicans. By focusing on issues first, you’re framing the way in which a voter considers the ballot, and that’s called loading the deck.

Three:

Real Clear Politics has the generic ballot averaged at 42-40 with Democrats up 2 percent.  That’s a much more accurate read of where the ballot normally is and where it likely is today.

POLLSTER: Abt-SRBI for Washington Post

DATE: Conducted 5/16-19/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,001 Adults; MoE ±3.5%

SOURCE: http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-poll-may-15-19-2013/170/

The post Polling Memo: The Truth about that Generic Ballot appeared first on National Republican Congressional Committee.

Recent headlines have boasted “steady” job approval ratings for President Obama despite last week’s brewing round of scandals.

What those headlines haven’t told you are the real reasons behind those numbers.  Let’s take a look.

First, Washington Post. 

Yesterday, Washington Post showed Obama sitting plus 7 at 51-44 percent on his job approval as President of the United States.  When looking at the sample frame, it also showed an 11 point advantage for Democrats on party ID—33% Democrat and 22% Republican.   For reference, on Election Night 2012, Democrats composed 38% of the electorate and Republicans composed 32%.  That’s a 6 point spread.  Furthermore, in 2008, when Democrats won in a landslide, Democrats still only had a 7 point turnout advantage over Republicans, 39-32 respectively.

Next, CNN.

On Sunday, CNN released data showing President Obama sitting at a more than comfortable +8 percent (53-45) on his job approval.  Not only is this a 4 point net positive movement for Obama since their last survey in April where he sat at 51-47 approve, but it’s also a 4 point swing in favor of the President in his supposed “worst week ever.”  Why?  The men and Independent samples are just too democratic.

In this poll, men approve of the President 50-49. In April, they disapproved 45-52. On Election Night 2012, they voted against President Obama 45-52.

Turning to Independents, this poll has Independents disapproving of Obama 47-49. In April, they disapproved 45-52. On Election Night 2012, Independents went for Romney 50-45.

What’s crazy is the fact that these polls still show numbers like this: “60 percent of independent voters think the Obama administration is ‘trying to cover up the facts’ about what occurred in Benghazi, while 47 percent think the administration is scrambling to cover up the IRS scandal.’” ¹

Imagine what the numbers would be if the samples were actually correct.

POLLSTER: Abt-SRBI for Washington Post

DATE: Conducted 5/16-19/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,001 Adults; MoE ±3.5%

SOURCE: http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2013/05/21/National-Politics/Polling/release_237.xml

POLLSTER: ORC International for CNN

DATE: Conducted 5/14-18/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 923 Adults; MoE ±3.0%

SOURCE: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/05/19/rel6a.pdf

POLLSTER: ORC International for CNN

DATE: Conducted 4/5-7/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,012 Adults; MoE ±3.0%

SOURCE: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/04/08/rel4a.pdf

 ¹ http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/348913/poll-independents-think-obama-administration-involved-cover-benghazi-irs-katrina

The real numbers behind the President’s “steady” approval ratings. Take a look here: nrcc.org/2013/05/22/pol… #tcot #gop

— Topline Translator (@ToplineReport) May 22, 2013

The post Polling Memo: The Real Numbers behind Obama’s Approval Ratings appeared first on National Republican Congressional Committee.

]]> http://www.nrcc.org/2013/05/22/polling-memo-the-real-numbers-behind-obamas-approval-ratings/feed/ 0 http://www.nrcc.org/2013/05/20/polling-memo-voters-on-benghazi/ http://www.nrcc.org/2013/05/20/polling-memo-voters-on-benghazi/#comments Mon, 20 May 2013 18:20:52 +0000 Kayla Sulzer http://www.nrcc.org/?p=41027 Benghazi: By the Numbers A little over eight months ago, on September 11, 2012, terrorists attacked the US diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya killing four Americans including Ambassador Chris Stevens. Since then, the Obama administration has been anything but transparent in the Benghazi investigation, constantly changing the narrative as to what was known and when.  ...

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]]> Benghazi: By the Numbers

A little over eight months ago, on September 11, 2012, terrorists attacked the US diplomatic mission in Benghazi, Libya killing four Americans including Ambassador Chris Stevens.

Since then, the Obama administration has been anything but transparent in the Benghazi investigation, constantly changing the narrative as to what was known and when.  And, while President Obama continues to dismiss these troubling findings as nothing more than “political circus,” here’s where the voters stand.

Fifty-three percent are dissatisfied with the “way the Obama administration has handled [Benghazi] in the past few months.” Among Independents, this numbers jumps to 58 percent. Another 59 percent believe the attacks were preventable. Fifty-eight percent of Independents agree.  And, while the electorate is relatively split when it comes to whether the Obama Administration has been honest on Benghazi, 48 percent of Independents are convinced they have been dishonest.

 

POLLSTER: ORC International for CNN

DATE: Conducted 5/14-18/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 923 Adults; MoE ±3.0%

SOURCE: Q 18 & 21; http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/05/19/rel6a.pdf

 

POLLSTER: Pew Research Center

DATE: Conducted 5/9-12/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,000 Adults; MoE ±3.7%

SOURCE: http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/5-13-13%20Benghazi%20Release.pdf

 

Numbers show Obama in tough spot among IND as 48% believe Administration has been dishonest on #Benghazi. nrcc.org/2013/05/20/pol… #tcot

— Topline Translator (@ToplineReport) May 20, 2013

 

 

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]]> http://www.nrcc.org/2013/05/20/polling-memo-voters-on-benghazi/feed/ 0 http://www.nrcc.org/2013/05/16/polling-memo-the-obamacare-train-wreck/ http://www.nrcc.org/2013/05/16/polling-memo-the-obamacare-train-wreck/#comments Thu, 16 May 2013 22:25:58 +0000 Kayla Sulzer http://www.nrcc.org/?p=40860 YG Network: No Hope 4 ObamaCare About a month ago, top democrat and key proponent of the President’s healthcare bill, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told radio host Rusty Humphries that ObamaCare is headed for a huge “train wreck.” Voters would seemingly agree as a 44 percent plurality believes ObamaCare will make things worse for ...

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]]> YG Network: No Hope 4 ObamaCare

About a month ago, top democrat and key proponent of the President’s healthcare bill, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid told radio host Rusty Humphries that ObamaCare is headed for a huge “train wreck.”

Voters would seemingly agree as a 44 percent plurality believes ObamaCare will make things worse for them and their family.  When looking at Independents, this number spikes to a near majority at 48 percent. Additionally, 53% of voters say they would repeal or change ObamaCare.

Despite clear voter discontent with the healthcare law, once again, House Democrats, voted against repeal of the President’s Affordable Care Act.

 

POLLSTER: McLaughlin & Associates for YG Network

DATE: Conducted 3/4-7/2013

SAMPLE: Sampled 1,000 Likely 2014 General Election Voters; MoE ±3.1% @ 95% confidence interval

SOURCE: Slide 20 & 24; http://ygnetwork.org/downloads/National_YGN_Vision_3-13-13_Presentation.PDF

 

While 44% say ObamaCare will makes things worse, House Dems once again vote for the ObamaCare “train wreck” nrcc.org/2013/05/16/pol… #tcot

— Topline Translator (@ToplineReport) May 16, 2013

 

 

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