Democrats Predict 210-Vote Victory in NY-20

April 1, 2009

Venture capitalist Scott Murphy (D) will win the special election in New York’s 20th district by 210 votes after all outstanding absentee and military ballots are counted, according to projections made by Democratic Party officials and obtained by the Fix.

The projections — based off of the county performances by Murphy and state Assemblyman Jim Tedisco (R) on election night — show the Democrat gaining 115 votes in Warren County, 96 votes in Columbia County and 70 votes in Washington County as well as scoring smaller gains in several other counties. Tedisco’s only major gain, according to the model, will be in Saratoga County where he will net an additional 116 votes.

The Democratic projection puts the total number of absentee and military ballots at 5,584 with Murphy winning 2,864 and Tedisco taking 2,720. On election night, Murphy held a 65-vote lead — 77,344 to 77,279.

Republicans insist that any such “projections” are not an appropriate gauge of what the eventual universe of absentee ballots will look like.

“It appears — by accident — that Democrats are finally admitting that the Republican registration numbers are a misleading indicator of the district’s inherent Democratic lean,” said Ken Spain, communications director at the National Republican Congressional Committee. “According to their own ‘model’ they have either been deliberately offering up false statements claiming that the party registration favors Republicans or these numbers simply aren’t based in fact.”

A memo distributed to reporters this morning by the NRCC notes that there is a “Republican advantage among the absentee and military ballots that exceed the current Murphy lead,” adding: “This is not a ‘model’ but raw data.”

House Minority Leader John Boehner (Ohio) predicted victory during a press conference on the budget this morning. “When all the ballots are counted, I’ll be proud to escort Jim Tedisco down the center aisle of the House to be sworn in as our newest member,” Boehner said.

The Republican National Committee weighed in as well, arguing that the closeness of the race is a broader reflection of the public’s displeasure with the president’s policies.

“Everybody knows that the Democrats would have won this race easily if it were held last November, in a district President Obama won and the Democrat congressional candidate carried with 62 percent of the vote,” said Curt Anderson, a consultant to the RNC. “The ground is clearly shifting. The Murphy campaign staked everything on the President and his economic policies and the chances are quite good that they will lose when all the ballots are counted.”

 

 
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