Republican Recruiting Recovering

Republicans, out of power in Washington and struggling badly to find new leaders to match President Obama at the national level, are on the verge of a series of recruiting successes in the early days of the 2010 election that suggest their electoral prospects may be — slowly — improving.

On the Senate front, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist is an all-but-announced candidate while former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge is seriously considering a bid. Rep. Mark Kirk (Ill.) is leaning toward a Senate run (and will decide VERY soon) and Rep. Mike Castle (Del.) appears to be leaning in the “run” direction as well — spurred by new polling that shows him well ahead of his likely Democratic opponent.

If all four run (a possible if not probable scenario) they would join a mix of young rising stars (former Florida state House speaker Marco Rubio) and capable alternatives (former Connecticut representative Rob Simmons) already in races — all of which would add up to the strongest Senate class since the heady days of 2004.

House Republicans have seen similar success — lobbying Manchester (N.H.) Mayor Frank Guinta to pass up a Senate or gubernatorial bid to challenge Rep. Carol Shea Porter, and luring Springfield (Ore.) Mayor Sid Leiken into a race against Rep. Peter Defazio.

What explains the early recruiting successes for Republicans?

“Now Republicans have a foil,” said Carl Forti, a former communications director at the National Republican Congressional Committee and now a GOP consultant. “In a center right country with a Democrat[ic] president and Congress, candidates can now oppose something or be against the liberal policies.”

Several other GOP strategists acknowledged that the presence of President George W. Bush — and his prolonged unpopularity among voters — as the titular head of the party kept a number of candidates out of races in 2006 and 2008. Freed of that burden at the top of the party, Republican candidates are more free to run their own individual campaigns.

History is also working in Republican recruiters’ favor as the president’s party traditionally loses seats in the first midterm election. In all but one of the midterm elections held in the first term of a president since 1970, the party out of the White House has picked up House seats.

“Historically, 2010 should be a strong year for Republicans,” said Sara Taylor, a former political director in the Bush White House. “If you look at the issue landscape as it’s shaping up today, by election day, these candidates’ odds are it’s likely to better than historical averages.”

A third critical factor is that the losses over the past two elections — 15 Senate seats and 54 House seats — have opened up a number of enticing targets for Republican candidates who have been eying the possibility of a run for federal office for years. Many Democrats hold House seats or represent states where the electorate is closely divided, meaning any slight change in the national environment could give a GOP candidate a real pickup opportunity.

Does the fact that recruiting appears to be looking up for Republicans mean that they are on their way back to the majority in 2010? No.

Particularly in the Senate, a number of Republicans’ “star” candidates are not yet announced and if three of the four mentioned above take a pass, a recruiting class with promise could morph into a disappointment in short order.

And, while candidate recruitment is a major factor in determining electoral outcomes but so is money, national mood and the nuts and bolts of campaigning.

Still, for a party decimated at so many levels following the 2008 elections, it’s hard not see the interest of top-tier candidates as a positive sign in the rebuilding process.
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