Dems worry about Melancon’s seat

While Democrats agree Rep. Charlie Melancon is their best bet in knocking off Sen. David Vitter (R-La.), his candidacy would leave the party short a candidate in a House district that appears to be trending from blue to red.

A few possible candidates for Melancon’s seat have emerged, but recruitment will be tough since the seat could disappear in 2012, after redistricting. The new district could tilt even further to the right since Republicans, particularly GOP Gov. Bobby Jindal, will exert their influence over the redistricting process.

In 2008, Republican presidential nominee John McCain trounced Barack Obama in Melancon’s district, carrying it with 61 percent of the vote. George W. Bush won the district with 58 percent four years earlier…

“Melancon was almost a special case,” said John Maginnis, editor of the nonpartisan LaPolitics newsletter. “The district is trending Republican.”…

“It will be more difficult for them to get anything together without already having someone stepping up to run,” Maginnis said, noting there’s no clear Democratic heir apparent.

Louisiana Democrats have floated the names of three state representatives as possible candidates; two have confirmed they are looking at the race. Most of the discussion has centered on state Rep. Gary Smith. Smith considered running for seat when it was open in 2004, but deferred to Melancon…

The Democrat with the largest profile in the district, however, is probably state Rep. Damon Baldone. But Baldone is currently running in a special election for a state Senate seat, so any congressional aspirations are likely on hold until after that contest.

“All of these guys have looked at it,” said one party insider of the three. “If and when Charlie leaves, they are going to be seriously considering it.”??

National and Louisiana Republicans, who were already gearing up to go after Melancon in the House seat, say their hopes have been bolstered by Melancon’s Senate aspirations. Melancon hasn’t formally announced for the Senate race but has made it known he’s considering his options.

If he runs, Republicans are expecting a larger field to develop for the open seat.

“An open seat would certainly create a lot of interest from a number of strong Republican candidates,” said Paul Lindsay, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

State Rep. Nickie Monica was mentioned as a candidate long before Melancon was considering a Senate bid. He has yet to formally announce but, in an interview with The Hill, sounded an awful lot like a candidate. He noted that running for Congress has “been one of my goals for several years.”??

“It looks like right now is the perfect time,” he added. “I am excited about the opportunity.”??

But buzz in D.C. and Louisiana has shifted to former Louisiana state House Speaker Hunt Downer. Two of the biggest fundraisers in the area, Boysie Bollinger and Joe Canizaro, have approached Downer, who is now the assistant adjutant general of the Louisiana National Guard, and have offered their backing.

Besides those two, Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser, the son of a former Louisiana GOP chairman; Bill Hubbard, the St. John Parish president; and Charlotte Randolph, the Lafourche Parish president, are other possibilities for the GOP…??

And, indeed, Democrats have done well in southeast Louisiana in local elections. Of the 21 state House districts that overlap with Melancon’s district, 11 are held by Democrats. The Democratic advantage is larger in the state Senate, where Democrats sit in seven of the eight seats in Melancon’s district…??

How long that district will exist, however, is a larger question. Most analysts agree that redistricting following the 2010 census will likely benefit Republicans. ??

Wayne Parent, a political scientist at Louisiana State University, said Louisiana will almost definitely lose a House seat. It is also likely that the northern districts, where population loss has been most severe, will be stretched southward and could encroach on the northern parts of Melancon’s district. ??

In fact, some proposals have already been floated that would eliminate Melancon’s district. ??

“If there is going to be some redrawing in the south, Melancon’s district would seem fairly vulnerable,” Parent said.

Another proposal that has been floated involves creating a majority-black district that stretches from New Orleans north to Baton Rouge. That would undoubtedly hurt Democrats in the 3rd district.

“The African-American district between New Orleans and Baton Rouge would take some African-Americans away from the Melancon district, some Democrats,” Parent noted… ??

“Unless you’re going to scrap the minority-majority district,” he said, “[I] don’t see how Democrats could benefit, especially with Jindal as governor.?

“If you’re looking at the state, that’s the district you can pick up if you’re a Republican,” he added. “And you don’t have to do much in terms of moving things around in that district since it’s already competitive.”
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