Blue Dog Blues

Following Stunning Democrat Losses, Even in Deep Blue New York City, Blue Dogs Are As Vulnerable as Ever

• In the wake of the Democrats’ humiliating special election losses, including a deep blue New York City district and a 22 point defeat in a Nevada swing seat, Democrats could be playing a lot of defense in 2012 with an unpopular President Obama at the top of the ticket.
• While Democrats even in historically blue districts may face the threat of defeat, already vulnerable “Blue Dog” Democrats from perennial swing districts are in even more of a predicament.
• As President Obama is a drag to his party even in Democrat strongholds, “Blue Dogs” are caught between their continuing support for Obama’s job-destroying agenda and his increasing political toxicity. How many more Blue Dogs will head for the exits rather than defend their votes for the Obama-Pelosi agenda in 2012?

BACKGROUND

In the wake of the Democrats’ humiliating special election losses, including a deep blue New York City district and a 22 point defeat in a Nevada swing seat, Democrats could be playing a lot of defense in 2012 with an unpopular President Obama at the top of the ticket:  

REPUBLICAN MARK AMODEI BEAT KATE MARSHALL’S MEDISCARE TACTICS BY 22 POINTS: (Associated Press, Accessed 9/14/2011) 

REPUBLICAN BOB TURNER PREVAILED IN NY-09, A DISTRICT THAT WENT FOR OBAMA BY 11 POINTS: (Josh Lederman, “Dems Work to Stop Bleeding from GOP’s Win in New York,” The Hill, 9/14/2011) 

PUBLIC POLICY POLLING: “THE INCREDIBLE UNPOPULARITY OF BARACK OBAMA IS DRAGGING HIS PARTY DOWN”—31% APPROVAL IN NY-09; 16% WITH INDYS,ONLY 46% APPROVAL WITH DEMOCRATS: (Tom Jensen, “Turner poised for big upset,” Public Policy Polling, 9/11/2011)

NY TIMES: HOUSE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS “EXPRESSED DEEP CONCERN ABOUT THEIR OWN RE-ELECTION EFFORTS NEXT YEAR” POST NY-09: “In a closed-door meeting of the House Democratic Caucus on Wednesday, participants said, members of Congress expressed deep concern about their own re-election efforts next year. The defeats also signaled the deepening fissures between Democrats on Capitol Hill and the White House.” (Jeff Zeleny, “G.O.P. Sees Bellwether in Two Democratic Defeats,” The New York Times, 9/14/2011) 

NY-09 SEAT HAS DEMOGRAPHICS SIMILAR TO SEAT HELD BY DCCC CHAIRMAN STEVE ISRAEL: “One other note about #NY09. DCCC Chair Steve Israel represents a nearby NYC district w/ similar demos, loss would be big embarrassment.” (Tweet from Josh Kraushaar, National Journal, 9/8/2011) 

NATIONAL JOURNAL’s “THEHOTLINE“: OBAMA’S UNPOPULARITY “SHOULD WORRY DEMS EVERYWHERE”: (“Obama The Albatross,” National Journal’s “The Hotline”, 9/12/2011)

DEM STRATEGIST: OBAMA UNPOPULARITY COULD PUT OTHER NEW YORK DEMS IN TROUBLE: ” ‘The fear is that with a Republican [Robert Turner] being so close for the Weiner seat, which is in a traditionally safe Democratic district, that Democratic marginals [in hard-fought districts] like Maurice Hinchey, Paul Tonko and Louise Slaughter, will be in trouble next year,’ a top Democratic said yesterday, referring to three upstate Congress members.” (Fredric U. Dicker, “O, What A Drag He Is for Dems,” The New York Post, 9/6/2011) 

“COMMON SENSE” THAT OBAMA IS “A DRAG ON DOWNBALLOT DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES”: (Stuart Rothenberg, “Democrats Jump the Shark in New York Special,” Roll Call,9/11/2011)

IN NEVADA, “TERRIBLE CLIMATE FOR DEMOCRATS” AND “POOR POLLING NUMBERS” FOR OBAMA KEY TO MARSHALL’S DEFEAT: (Kyle Trygstad, “Democrats Brace for Disappointment in Nevada,” Roll Call, 9/13/2011)

While Democrats even in historically blue districts may face the threat of defeat, already vulnerable “Blue Dog” Democrats from perennial swing districts are in even more of a predicament:

BLUE DOGS NOW “TRY[ING] TO PERSEVERE AMID LOW OBAMA POLL NUMBERS”: “Blue Dogs in Congress, already an endangered species following the last election, are bracing for another challenging campaign season. … Redistricting, coupled with President Obama’s low approval ratings, has buoyed GOP hopes of picking up seats in the 2012 election.” (Cameron Joseph, “Conservative Dems Try to Persevere Amid Low Obama Poll Numbers,” The Hill, 9/27/2011)

MORE THAN HALF OF 22 BLUE DOGS RUNNING FOR RE-ELECTION COULD FACE TOUGHER DISTRICTS IN 2012; 8 ALREADY AT RISK: “Eight of those 25 members’ districts have become more conservative from redistricting, and another five could be put in less-Democratic districts, leaving the possibility that a majority of the Blue Dog Coalition could be running in districts that are even harder to hold next election.” (Cameron Joseph, “Conservative Dems Try to Persevere Amid Low Obama Poll Numbers,”The Hill, 9/27/2011)

BEFORE NY-9, DEMS ALREADY FACED THREAT THAT AT LEAST 16 OUT OF REMAINING 22 BLUE DOGS WERE VULNERABLE TO DEFEAT OR RETIREMENT: “With the retirement this week of Rep. Mike Ross (D-Ark.), the Blue Dog caucus – a collection of House Democratic conservatives – is dwindling even further.

“In the 2012 elections, redistricting is likely to further chip away at the once-powerful group, as members are placed into more Republican districts or forced to compete against more liberal Democrats.” (Aaron Blake and Rachel Weiner, “Blue Dogs a Dying Breed,”The Washington Post, 7/26/2011)

AND BLUE DOGS ARE ALREADY “INHERENTLY MORE VUNLERABLE, BOTH IN ELECTIONS AND REDISTRICTING”: “Blue Dogs are inherently more vulnerable, both in elections and in redistricting, because they usually represent toss-up or Republican-leaning areas. Republicans also control the legislatures in many of the states they hail from, having swept into power in numerous statehouses last election.

” ‘[Blue Dogs] are likely to be targeted disproportionately because they tend to represent the swing districts — all you have to do is make a modest shift in the partisanship of the district to put them at risk,’ said Emory University’s Alan Abramowitz, an expert on polarization in Congress. ‘These are the Democrats who are in swing districts, and it’s the swing districts that are the most susceptible to this line-drawing.'” (Cameron Joseph, “Conservative Dems Try to Persevere Amid Low Obama Poll Numbers,” The Hill, 9/27/2011)

As President Obama is a drag to his party even in Democrat strongholds, “Blue Dogs” are caught between their continuing support for Obama’s job-destroying agenda and his increasing political toxicity. How many more Blue Dogs will head for the exits rather than defend their votes for the Obama-Pelosi agenda in 2012?:

HOUSE DEMOCRATS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE OBAMA-PELOSI AGENDA:

DEMOCRAT LEADER NANCY PELOSI: “OUR CAUCUS IS VERY UNIFIED” ABOUT OBAMA’S NEW STIMULUS AND TAX HIKES. “Dem Leaders Pelosi adds ‘Our caucus is very unified about the American Jobs Act’ responding to ?s about some Dems not liking Obama plan” (Tweet from Kelly O’Donnell, NBC News, 9/15/2011) 

REPEAL OF THE GOVERNMENT TAKEOVER OF HEALTHCARE, OPPOSED BY 98% OF DEMS. Final Vote: 245-189. (Roll Call 14, Clerk of the U.S. House, 1/19/2011) 

BLUE DOGS HAVE A LONG HISTORY OF VOTING WITH PELOSI: “On the biggest, defining votes since the Democrats took the House, the Blue Dogs have voted almost in lock-step with their party leaders.

“And with one leader in particular the Blue Dogs are more like lap dogs. Of the 62 votes cast by Speaker Pelosi during the current 111th Congress on economic issues, the Blue Dogs voted with her 80 percent of the time.” (“The Blue Dog Report,” The Club For Growth, 10/4/2010)

WHILE OBAMA IS SINKING EVEN IN BLUE STATES:

FIELD POLL: OBAMA AT 46% APPROVAL IN CALIFORNIA, 44% DISAPPROVAL:(Gabriella Schwarz, “Poll: Obama’s Drop Out West,” CNN, 9/14/2011)

PPP: OBAMA AT 49% APPROVAL, 45% APPROVAL IN MASSACHUSETTS: “You know Barack Obama’s going through a rough spot when his approval rating is under 50% even in Massachusetts.  49% of voters there now approve of the job he’s doing to 45% who disapprove.  That represents a 17 point drop on the margin from early June when he was at 58/37 in the state.” (“Massachusetts President Numbers,” Public Policy Polling, 9/21/2011) 

OBAMA SINKS TO 48% IN CONNECTICUT: (Daniela Altimari, “Obama’s Job Approval Drops Sharply in Connecticut,” The Hartford Courant, 9/16/2011) 

RHODE ISLAND POLL: ONLY 38% SAY THEY WILL VOTE TO RE-ELECT OBAMA, 35% TO VOTE AGAINST: (“Exclusive Poll: President has Lost Nearly Half His Support in RI,” Go Local Prov, 9/22/2011)