Polling Memo: The Real Numbers behind Obama’s Approval Ratings
About Those Obama Ratings: The Facts
Recent headlines have boasted “steady” job approval ratings for President Obama despite last week’s brewing round of scandals.
What those headlines haven’t told you are the real reasons behind those numbers. Let’s take a look.
First, Washington Post.
Yesterday, Washington Post showed Obama sitting plus 7 at 51-44 percent on his job approval as President of the United States. When looking at the sample frame, it also showed an 11 point advantage for Democrats on party ID—33% Democrat and 22% Republican. For reference, on Election Night 2012, Democrats composed 38% of the electorate and Republicans composed 32%. That’s a 6 point spread. Furthermore, in 2008, when Democrats won in a landslide, Democrats still only had a 7 point turnout advantage over Republicans, 39-32 respectively.
Next, CNN.
On Sunday, CNN released data showing President Obama sitting at a more than comfortable +8 percent (53-45) on his job approval. Not only is this a 4 point net positive movement for Obama since their last survey in April where he sat at 51-47 approve, but it’s also a 4 point swing in favor of the President in his supposed “worst week ever.” Why? The men and Independent samples are just too democratic.
In this poll, men approve of the President 50-49. In April, they disapproved 45-52. On Election Night 2012, they voted against President Obama 45-52.
Turning to Independents, this poll has Independents disapproving of Obama 47-49. In April, they disapproved 45-52. On Election Night 2012, Independents went for Romney 50-45.
What’s crazy is the fact that these polls still show numbers like this: “60 percent of independent voters think the Obama administration is ‘trying to cover up the facts’ about what occurred in Benghazi, while 47 percent think the administration is scrambling to cover up the IRS scandal.’” 1
Imagine what the numbers would be if the samples were actually correct.
POLLSTER: Abt-SRBI for Washington Post
DATE: Conducted 5/16-19/2013
SAMPLE: Sampled 1,001 Adults; MoE ±3.5%
POLLSTER: ORC International for CNN
DATE: Conducted 5/14-18/2013
SAMPLE: Sampled 923 Adults; MoE ±3.0%
SOURCE: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/05/19/rel6a.pdf
POLLSTER: ORC International for CNN
DATE: Conducted 4/5-7/2013
SAMPLE: Sampled 1,012 Adults; MoE ±3.0%
SOURCE: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/04/08/rel4a.pdf
The real numbers behind the President’s “steady” approval ratings. Take a look here: nrcc.org/2013/05/22/pol… #tcot #gop
— Topline Translator (@ToplineReport) May 22, 2013