NRCC Memo: California Primary Results
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NRCC POLITICAL AND NRCC COMMUNICATIONS
DATE: JUNE 4, 2014
SUBJECT: CALIFORNIA PRIMARY RESULTS
National Democrats are playing defense in Nancy Pelosi’s home state of California. California Democrats need to hold a handful of very competitive seats running against an impressive list of Republican candidates. Democrat incumbents are on the run from their records thanks to ObamaCare’s failures and Nancy Pelosi’s reckless agenda. These Democrats will face voters unimpressed with their voting records and commitment to job crushing policies. Meanwhile, a dynamic and diverse field of Republican candidates are holding these Democrats accountable with impressive track records and an outside Washington message about jobs and the economy.
CHALLENGERS
CA-03: Dan Logue (R) v. John Garamendi (D)
In a swing district like California’s 3rd Congressional district, Democrat John Garamendi will find himself in a competitive race come November. Garamendi consistently supports his party’s failed domestic agenda, including ObamaCare, which will be at the forefront of the debate throughout the remainder of the election cycle. Garamendi is a career politician who is in Congress purely for the perks and not for the people. Whether it’s the two taxpayer-funded pensions he collects in addition to his $174,000 per year congressional salary or the hundreds of thousands of dollars in vacations Garamendi accepts from special interests, the evidence is clear Garamendi has to go. Republican Dan Logue is a tireless campaigner who has represented his community well in the State Assembly. Watch this race heat up over the summer.
Geography: PVI: D+3; Obama 54.3% – Romney 43.1%. California’s 3rd Congressional District is located in the north central portion of the state and includes Fairfield, Davis, and Yuma City. The Cook Political Report rates it as Likely Democratic and the Rothenberg Report rate it as Safe Democrat.
CA-07: Doug Ose (R) v. Ami Bera (D)
California’s 7th Congressional district is a tossup and rated EVEN by Cook Political Report. Democrat Congressman Ami Bera will have a difficult time running from his voting record in his first term in office. A supporter of ObamaCare, Bera has even gone so far as to not rule out bailing out insurance companies that have lost profits due to the President’s failed health care law. Unlike Bera, former Congressman Doug Ose was a consistent vote for fiscal responsibility and common sense policies and will continue standing up for California families in Congress.
Geography: PVI: EVEN; Obama 50.8% – Romney 46.8%. California’s 7th Congressional District is located in the north central portion of the state and includes the Sacramento suburbs. The Cook Political Report rates it as a Toss Up and the Rothenberg Report rates it as Lean Democrat.
CA-16: Johnny Tacherra (R) v. Jim Costa (D)
Democrat Jim Costa faces a tough challenge from Republican Johnny Tacherra. Costa’s fake moderate rhetoric doesn’t match his liberal voting record in Congress. Costa has been a consistent vote, throughout his long political career, for Nancy Pelosi. Costa’s consistent support for higher taxes and spending, along with ObamaCare, will hurt him in the polls.
Geography: PVI: D+7; Obama 58.5% – Romney 39.3%. California’s 16th Congressional District is located in the Central Valley and includes Fresno and Merced. The Cook Political Report rates it as Likely Democrat and the Rothenberg Report rates it as a Safe Democrat.
CA-24: Chris Mitchum/Justin Fareed (R) v. Lois Capps (D)
Democrat Lois Capps will face a tough challenge from either Republican Chris Mitchum or Justin Fareed. Capps toes the Democrat party line every chance she gets. From ObamaCare to reckless spending and higher taxes, Capps’ voting record doesn’t fit her district. Capps has voted for trillions in new spending, debt, and taxes.
Geography: PVI: D+4; Obama 53.9% – Romney 43%. California’s 24th Congressional District is located on the central coast of the state and includes Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo. The Cook Political Report rates it as Likely Democrat and the Rothenberg Report rates it as a Safe Democrat.
CA-26: Jeff Gorell (R) v. Julia Brownley (D)
In this election cycle there couldn’t be a bigger contrast between the two candidates in California’s 26th Congressional district. Democrat Julia Brownley is a staunch supporter of Nancy Pelosi and ObamaCare, despite the negative consequence the law has had on families and small businesses. Brownley always puts the interests of her party ahead of the needs of her constituents. Assemblyman Jeff Gorell, a veteran, teacher and criminal prosecutor, is an independent voice in the Republican Party and always votes for the interests of his constituents. Gorell’s experience and common sense policy proposals puts him in a strong position to win this district in November.
Geography: PVI: D+4; Obama 54% – Romney 43.7%. California’s 26th Congressional District is located in Ventura County. The Cook Political Report rates it as Lean Democrat and the Rothenberg Report rates it as Democrat Favored.
CA-36: Brian Nestande (R) v. Raul Ruiz (D)
Raul Ruiz rode Barack Obama’s coattails to victory in 2012 and hasn’t realized his district leans Republican which will be a problem in a midterm election. Ruiz is out of touch with the needs of his constituents and has taken his cues from Democrat party leaders like Nancy Pelosi. Voters in this R + 1 district want a representative that believes in fiscal responsibility and common sense policies that focus on job creation and economic growth. That person is Republican Brian Nestande. Assemblyman Nestande has spent his time working on issues important to the district and will serve his constituents well in Washington.
Geography: PVI: R+1; Obama 50.7% – Romney 47.5%. California’s 36th Congressional District is located in eastern Riverside County and includes Palm Springs and Palm Desert. The Cook Political Report rates it as a Toss Up and the Rothenberg Report rates it as Democrat Favored.
CA-52: Carl DeMaio (R) v. Scott Peters (D)
Democrat Congressman Scott Peters finds himself in the political fight of his life as he is challenged by former San Diego City Councilman Carl DeMaio. As a city councilman, Peters oversaw the pension scandal that has bankrupted the city and forced potential cuts to benefits. Carl DeMaio spent his time on the city council cleaning up the mess left by Scott Peters. Peters’ fiscal irresponsibility might fit in well in Washington, but that’s not what California families want. Carl DeMaio will clean up Scott Peters’ mess in Washington once he’s elected in November.
Geography: PVI: D+2; Obama 52.1% – Romney 45.7%. California’s 52nd Congressional District is located in Coastal Sand Diego and includes La Jolla. Both the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Report rate it as a Toss Up.
OPEN SEATS
CA-25: Tony Strickland (R) v. Steve Knight (R)
In an embarrassing blow to National Democrats, no Democrat made the ballot in California’s 25th Congressional District. Mitt Romney won less than 50% of the vote in this district and only beat President Obama by less than 2 points, yet Democrats failed to get a candidate across the finish line and onto the general election ballot. Republican Tony Strickland and Steve Knight are both in a strong position to replace retiring House Armed Services Committee Chairman Howard “Buck” McKeon.
Geography: PVI: R+3; Romney 49.7% – Obama 47.8%. California’s 25th Congressional District is located in northern LA County and includes Santa Clarita and Palmdale. The Cook Political Report rates it as Likely Republican and the Rothenberg Report rates it as Republican Favored.
CA-31: Paul Chabot (R) v. Pete Aguilar (D) / Lesli Gooch (R) / Eloise Gomez Reyes(D)
California’s 31st Congressional District is too close to call with 100% of precincts reporting. Republican Paul Chabot has advanced to the general election in November but only a few hundred votes separates Democrat Pete Aguilar, Republican Lesli Gooch, and Democrat Eloise Gomez Reyes. A bloody Democrat primary may cost Democrats a spot on the ballot in November, repeating the same mistake they made in 2012.
Geography: PVI: D+5; Obama 57.2% – Romney 40.6%. California’s 31st Congressional District is located in the Inland Empire and includes San Bernardino and Rancho Cucamonga. Both the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg Report rate it as Lean Democrat.
CA-45: Mimi Walters (R) v. Drew Leavens (D)
This solidly Republican district nearly ensures Mimi Walters will be the next Congresswoman from California’s 45th district. Congressman John Campbell’s shoes will be hard to fill but Mimi Walters has spent her career working for the people in California’s State Senate and General Assembly and is certainly up to the task of representing them in Washington.
Geography: PVI: R+7; Romney 54.8% – Obama 43%. California’s 45th Congressional District is located in Inland Orange County and includes Irvine and Mission Viejo. The Cook Political Report rates it as Solid Republican and the Rothenberg Report rates it as Safe Republican.
INCUMBENTS
CA-10: Jeff Denham (R) v. Michael Eggman (D)
Voters will have a clear choice in this race. Republican Jeff Denham has been a check and balance in Washington during his time in Congress and has stood up for his district. Democrat Michael Eggman would be nothing more than a rubber stamp for the Obama-Pelosi agenda. He’s on record supporting ObamaCare and all the failed policies that are hurting California families. While national Democrats may be eager for a loyal foot soldier, voters here are looking for a voice who will represent them, and Jeff Denham offers that.
Geography: PVI: R+1; Obama 50.5% – Romney 46.9%. California’s 10th Congressional District is located in the Central Valley and includes Modesto. The Cook Political Report rates it as Likely Republican and the Rothenberg Report rates it as Republican Favored.
CA-21: David Valadao (R) v. Amanda Renteria (D)
Democrats already had an uphill battle in this race to defeat Republican David Valadao, David Valadao is an incredibly strong candidate who has represented Central Valley well in his first term in Congress. Valadao, a dairy farmer, has been a pragmatic voice for his constituents, stands up for their interests and has strong crossover appeal to voters here. In comparison, Amanda Renteria has spent her career as a D.C. insider and Wall Street banker. Support for her in the district is so bad, it was reported that only one percent of her fundraising came from donors living in California’s 21st district. A staunch liberal, Amanda Renteria will be unable to garner support from voters in this moderate district.
Geography: PVI: D+2; Obama 54.6% – Romney 43.5%. California’s 21st Congressional District is located in the Central Valley and includes Hanford and parts of Bakersfield. The Cook Political Report rates it as Lean Republican and the Rothenberg Report rates it as a Toss-Up/Tilt Republican.
STATEWIDE ROUNDUP
The following are the unofficial results from Tuesday’s primary election in California. These results are unofficial and incomplete.
*Indicates Winner determined by AP
CA-03
455 of 455 Precincts Reporting (100%)
John Garamendi (D)* 55%
Dan Logue (R)* 45%
CA-07
558 of 558 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Ami Bera (D)* 47%
Doug Ose (R)* 27%
Igor Birman (R) 17%
Elizabeth Emken (R) 7%
CA-10
496 of 496 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Jeff Denham (R)* 57%
Michael Eggman (D)* 27%
Michael Barkley (D) 16%
CA-16
323 of 323 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Jim Costa (D)* 44%
Johnny Tacherra* 22%
Steve Crass (R) 16%
Mel Levey (R) 8%
Joanna Garcia-Botelho 6%
Job Melton 4%
CA-21
386 of 386 Precincts Reporting (100%)
David Valadao (R)* 64%
Amanda Renteria (D)* 25%
John Hernandez (D) 11%
CA-24
373 of 373 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Lois Capps (D)* 45%
Chris Mitchum (R) 16%
Justin Fareed (R) 15%
Dale Francisco (R) 12%
Bradley Allen (R) 6%
CA-25
383 of 383 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Tony Strickland (R)* 29%
Steve Knight (R)* 28%
Lee Rogers (D) 22%
Ivan Thomas (D) 10%
Troy Castagna (R) 6%
Navraj Singh (R) 1%
CA-26
474 of 474 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Julia Brownley (D)* 46%
Jeff Gorell (R)* 44%
Rafael Dagnesses (R) 8%
CA-31
477 of 477 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Paul Chabot (R)* 27%
Pete Aguilar (D) 17%
Lesli Gooch (R) 17%
Eloise Gomez Reyes 16%
Joe Baca (D) 11%
CA-36
303 of 303 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Raul Ruiz (D)* 50%
Brian Nestande (R)* 35%
Ray Haynes (R) 15%
CA-45
485 of 485 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Mimi Walters (R)* 45%
Drew Leavens (D)* 29%
Greg Raths (R) 24%
CA-52
397 of 397 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Scott Peters (D)* 42%
Carl DeMaio (R)* 36%
Kirk Jorgensen 18%
Fred Simon 4%