NRCC Morning Reads For Oct. 30, 2014: Dems Scrambling; GOP Momentum; Kuster Can’t Shake Support Of Obama

October 30, 2014

morning-reads

Good morning and welcome to NRCC Morning Reads for Thursday, October 30, 2014.

Democrats Scrambling To Save Incumbents:

The Associated Press‘ Donna Cassata details just how desperate Democrats have become with just 5 days to go. We’ve mentioned over and over how Democrats have simply dropped into a “prevent defense” and turned their focus entirely onto saving incumbents. Here’s even more proof:

“In one example, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has bought $99,000 in radio ads for eight-term Rep. Lois Capps in her Santa Barbara-area race against Chris Mitchum, the son of the late actor Robert Mitchum. The GOP candidate has relatively little money still on hand for his campaign — $96,108 — but the contest is considered close.

‘The committee also reserved $360,000 in air time for ads for first-term Rep. Steven Horsford in his central Nevada district north of Las Vegas after the Karl Rove-founded group Crossroads GPS made a late ad buy of $935,000. And In Hawaii, the Democrats are spending $200,000 on television ads and voter outreach for Mark Takai, who is locked in a tight race with former Republican Rep. Charles Djou in an open Honolulu-based district that Obama won with 70 percent of the vote.

‘In the closing days, the Democratic committee has invested $1.1 million in an effort to protect six incumbents in Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, West Virginia and California.”

What a change from just 3 months ago. Back then, Nancy Pelosi vowed Democrats would take back the House by winning 25 seats. They’re a victim of their own expectations.

Rating Changes Show Races Moving In GOP Direction:

With just a few days to go, The Rothenberg Political Report moved 9 races towards Republicans, a sure sign of momentum for the homestretch.

• Florida’s 26th District (Rep. Joe Garcia, Democrat): From Pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Republican.
• Iowa’s 1st District (Open; Bruce Braley, Democrat, is running for Senate): From Tossup/Tilts Democratic to Pure Tossup.
• Minnesota’s 8th District (Rep. Rick Nolan, DFL): From Tossup/Tilts Democratic to Pure Tossup
• Nevada’s 4th District (Rep. Steven Horsford, Democrat): From Safe Democrat to Favored Democratic.
• New Jersey’s 3rd District (Open; Rep. Jon Runyan, Republican, is retiring): From Tossup/Tilts Republican to Leans Republican.
• New York’s 1st District (Rep. Timothy H. Bishop, Democrat, is retiring): From Tossup/Tilts Democratic to Pure Tossup.
• New York’s 11th District (Rep. Michael G. Grimm, Republican): From Pure Tossup to Tossup/Tilts Republican.
• New York’s 18th District (Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, Democrat): From Leans Democratic to Tossup/Tilts Democratic.
• New York’s 24th District (Rep. Dan Maffei, Democrat): From Leans Democratic to Tossup/Tilts Democratic.

A common theme among almost all is that they’re in Obama districts. The GOP is plunging headfirst into districts once thought to be unfriendly. We’re winning because we’re proving our message resonates with voters better than the Democrats’ message of higher taxes, ObamaCare, and bigger government.

News and Notes from the Campaign Trail:

  • Republican Chris Gibson won the endorsement of the Albany Times Union over liberal hypocrite Sean Eldridge.
  • The race between Army vet Lee Zeldin and Tim Bishop, a Democrat congressman embroiled in scandal, is profiled in Roll Call this morning. It’s one of the races Rothenberg moved to “Pure Tossup” yesterday.

Those are your NRCC Morning Reads. There are just 5 days until Election Day.

-Matt

@msgorman