NRCC MEMO: ILLINOIS PRIMARY RESULTS
It wasn’t supposed to be this way. In January of 2015, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was crowing about their chances to pick up seats in Illinois, sending Recruitment Chair Rep. Denny Heck to the Land of Lincoln on his first recruiting trip on the 2016 cycle. But after the March 15th primary elections, instead of preparing to compete for multiple seats, Democrats have written-off their chances in IL-12 and IL-13 and are left picking up the pieces from a brutal primary in IL-10. Bob Dold, who in 2012 over performed the top of the ticket by nearly 9 points in IL-10, starts off the general election with a huge cash advantage over Brad Schneider who had just $296,000 on hand as of the pre-primary FEC filing.
IL-10: Robert Dold, R vs. Rep. Brad Schneider, D
Bob Dold has shown that he is a perfect fit for the 10th District and that he knows how to defy political gravity, having outperformed Romney by nearly 9 points in 2012. In this fiercely independent district, Dold’s willingness to work with anyone and everyone to advance solutions gives him broad appeal across party lines. From his bipartisan efforts to combat the heroin epidemic to securing funding to improve Chicago’s infrastructure, Dold has been repeatedly acknowledged for his record of working across the aisle, including recognition by The Washington Post, Roll Call, and The Lugar Center.
Structurally, Dold benefits greatly from the aftershocks of the divisive Democratic primary. While Brad Schneider and Nancy Rotering spent well over $1.5 million dollars tearing each other down and running so far to the extreme left, Dold has been able to continue getting out his message and fundraising for the general without a contested primary. As of the pre-primary filings, Dold sported $1.6 million in his war chest, far ahead of his Democratic rivals.
Despite having the full backing of Nancy Pelosi and the DCCC, Brad Schneider faced a tough primary challenge and now goes into the general election bloodied, broke, and facing an uphill climb in the expensive Chicago media market. Schneider, known for his say-anything campaign in 2014, has shown that he is desperate to make it back to Washington, no matter what line he has to cross. Most notably, his high-profile flip-flop on the Iran Nuclear Deal will alienate many 10th District voters. Additionally, Schneider will continue to be dogged by questions surrounding his personal tax returns and family investments in a firm that did business with Iran.
Geography: PVI: D+8; Dold outperformed Romney by nearly 9 points in 2012. Both Cook Political Report and Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report rate this race as Toss Up. The district covers the northern suburbs of Chicago, including portions of Cook and Lake Counties.
STATEWIDE ROUNDUP
The following are the unofficial results from Tuesday’s primary election in Illinois.
*Indicates Winner determined by AP
IL-10 – GOP Primary
411 of 411 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Bob Dold* Uncontested
IL-10 – DEM Primary
411 of 411 Precincts Reporting (100%)
Brad Schneider * 54%
Nancy Rotering 46%