Dems blow it yet again. (This time in VA-02)
Despite all the DCCC chatter about riding a mythical tidal wave atop a surfing unicorn back into the majority this November, they still can’t seem to get actual candidates in key battleground districts. Their second “wait, we need actual candidates?” moment this week alone is courtesy of their recruitment failure in the open VA-02 seat.
The DCCC is apparently stuck with perennial losing candidate Shaun Brown. According to Daily Kos, “it’s a terrible disappointment because Mitt Romney only carried the 2nd by a 51-49 margin, making this GOP-held open seat a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats. Instead, it’s now all but guaranteed to stay red.”
Keep polishing up that surfboard, DCCC. 😉
NRCC Comment: “Now that Washington Democrats have failed to recruit a viable candidate in Virginia’s 2nd District, the seat is all but guaranteed to stay in the Republican column. The DCCC has again demonstrated they are content spending all of their time concocting fantasyland fairy tales about taking back the majority and zero time recruiting candidates needed to actually do so.” –NRCC Spokesman Chris Pack
Democrats miss a chance to flip an open Virginia swing seat
Daily Kos
By David Nir
April 6, 2016
http://m.dailykos.com/stories/2016/4/6/1511529/-Democrats-miss-a-chance-to-flip-an-open-Virginia-swing-seat
Virginia’s filing deadline closed late last week, but because the state had to spend some time verifying signatures, only now do we have official lists of candidates running for office. Note, though, that even these lists are incomplete, because they only cover congressional districts where primaries will be held on June 14; in some districts, parties choose to nominate their candidates by convention instead. You can find out what the plans are in each seat on this separate list.
In Virginia’s 2nd District, unfortunately, Democrats will conduct neither a primary nor a convention. That’s because the only person to qualify for the race is perennial candidate Shaun Brown, who’s run for the city council in Newport News four times and lost; in 2010, she took just 15 percent, placing fourth in a four-way race. Had Brown failed to turn in enough signatures, the party, which had initially said it would hold a primary, could have instead nominated an alternative by convention, but now that option is foreclosed.
It’s a terrible disappointment because Mitt Romney only carried the 2nd by a 51-49 margin, making this GOP-held open seat a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats. Instead, it’s now all but guaranteed to stay red. Republicans still have to duke it out between Rep. Randy Forbes, who’s carpetbagging from the 4th District, and state Del. Scott Taylor, who’s been slamming Forbes for that very same act of carpetbagging, but Democrats almost certainly won’t be able to capitalize.
Some Dude candidates do occasionally win congressional elections, but such victories require extraordinary circumstances, not least of which is an electoral wave. It’s possible we could see something like that develop thanks to the chaos currently enveloping the Republican presidential primary, but it’s also possible the GOP winds up, say, nominating Ted Cruz, who turns out to be a slightly worse version of Mitt Romney.
But even if the political climate turns out to be great for Democrats, it’s rare for candidates like Brown to win even in competitive seats. Yes, there are exceptions, like New Hampshire Democrat Carol Shea-Porter, who unseated a GOP incumbent in 2006 even though the DCCC had almost no idea who she was. Still, while unusual candidates do sometimes prevail in wave years, most surprise winners at least end up spending a credible amount of money to get to Congress.
If the overall political environment does in fact shift, then we will naturally revisit this race—and many others. But based on everything we know now, Democrats no longer have a shot in the 2nd District, so we’re moving this seat from Likely Republican to Safe Republican.