Clinton’s Favorability Nosedives as Primaries Head into Home Stretch

The bad news just keeps piling up for Democrats hoping to ride Hillary Clinton’s coattails to Congress. Once viewed as a strong general election candidate who would coast to an easy nomination, Clinton is now locked in a bitter primary battle against socialist Senator Bernie Sanders that will likely not be decided until the Democratic National Convention in July. At the same time, her general election numbers have begun to tank, as she is regularly outperformed by Sanders against her Republican opponents. Clinton’s broad unpopularity has made her a liability rather than an asset for Democrats running for Congress.

• Shortly after her party’s disastrous 2014 election cycle, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi declared that with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket, Democrats could take control of the House.
  • At the time Pelosi made this bold statement, Clinton enjoyed a favorable rating of nearly 52%. Today, her favorability stands at 38.4%.
• Clinton’s bitter primary struggle with Bernie Sanders has harmed her popularity among Democrats and Independents.
  • An April McClatchy-Marist poll showed that 1 in 4 Bernie Sanders supporters would not support Clinton in the general election.
  • An April Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that Clinton’s favorability had dropped 15 points in just four months, to an astonishing 20%/62% favorable/unfavorable rating.
• The latest general election poll shows Clinton trailing Donald Trump 41%-39%, with Clinton losing 15% of Democrats to Trump, and trailing 37%-31% among Independents.

NRCC Comment: “As Hillary Clinton becomes increasingly unpopular among voters, House Democrats’ hopes of riding her coattails to a majority are being exposed as the far-fetched fantasy they have always been. Whether Democrats nominate unpopular FBI target Hillary Clinton or socialist Senator Bernie Sanders, their down-ballot candidates will struggle to gain traction due to a deeply flawed candidate at the top of their ticket.” –NRCC Spokesman Bob Salera

Background:

Pelosi: With Hillary, Dems can win House. “Rep. Nancy Pelosi says Democrats can recapture control of the House in 2016 by riding Hillary Clinton’s coattails. “Yes, we can win the House,” the California Democrat said during a sit-down interview in her Capitol office. “If she runs, she will win the nomination. And if she’s our nominee, she clearly — I mean, the campaign, the joint effort — would be one that could not only take her into office but would [pull Democrats to victory],” Pelosi said.” (Mike Lillis, The Hill, 1/27/15)

Democrats hope for Hillary coattails. “Her campaign is still in its infancy. The presidential election is nearly 18 months away. But Democrats are already banking on a “Hillary effect,” an anticipated wave that will lift the party’s fortunes up and down the ticket… Clinton’s campaign, however, could be a boon in some of the biggest and bluest states — like New York and Illinois — where Clinton has roots and is likely to outperform her national numbers.” (Kyle Cheney, Theodoric Meyer, and Elena Schneider, Politico, 5/27/15)

Poll: 1 in 4 Sanders supporters won’t vote for Clinton. “One out of every four Bernie Sanders supporters said they will not support Hillary Clinton in the general election if she is the Democratic Party’s standard bearer, according to the results of a McClatchy-Marist poll out Wednesday.” (Nick Gass, Politico, 4/6/16)

Hillary Clinton’s Growing Problem With Independents. “Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton faces a mounting challenge among independent voters following months of attacks from rival Bernie Sanders. An April Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that Mrs. Clinton’s favorability rating among independents had dropped 15 percentage points in the last four months alone. That poll found that 20% of independents viewed Mrs. Clinton positively, compared with 62% who viewed her negatively—a gap of 42 percentage points. In January, that same poll found her with a positive rating of 35% and a negative rating of 54%—a gap of fewer than 20 percentage points.” (Rebecca Ballhaus, The Wall Street Journal, 5/3/16)

Real Clear Politics: Clinton: Favorable/Unfavorable

Rasmussen Reports: May 2, 2016