June 15, 2016



DATE: JUNE 15, 2016


A combination of strong Republican nominees for Congress and recruiting failures on the part of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) will ensure an uphill battle for Democrats hoping to gain seats in Virginia. The DCCC failed to recruit a credible candidate in the redrawn VA-02 to challenge former U.S. Navy SEAL and Iraq War veteran Scott Taylor, and are now left with a perennial losing city council candidate. In VA-10, the DCCC was unable to recruit a local candidate, and instead imported a DC insider who only rented a House in the district after announcing her candidacy. As we have seen in races across the country, the DCCC’s inability to attract viable challengers has handcuffed their chances to make significant gains in the House this year.

VA-02: Scott Taylor, R vs. Shaun Brown, D

After court-ordered redistricting created a freshly redrawn VA-02, State Delegate Scott Taylor will look to replace retiring Congressman Scott Rigell. Taylor, a former U.S. Navy SEAL and Iraq War veteran, is the perfect fit to represent the district, which has the highest concentration of military personnel of any congressional district in the nation. This gives Taylor a unique opportunity to hit the ground running with his military background while also being a fresh face in Washington.

Democrats’ failure to field a credible candidate will ensure an uphill fight for their party. Democrat candidate Shaun Brown is a four-time losing Newport News City Council candidate, who has never been elected to public office and has not raised any money for her congressional race.

Overview: PVI: R+5; Romney 50.38%; The District covers Virginia Beach and surrounding areas, including Williamsburg, York County, and parts of James City County and Newport News.  The Cook Political Report rates this race as “Solid Republican” and the Rothenberg Political Report rates this race as “Safe Republican.”

VA-10: Barbara Comstock, R vs. LuAnn Bennett, D

Freshman Representative Barbara Comstock has proven to be an effective member of Congress, as well as a prolific fundraiser in her first term, placing herself in a strong position for the general election with $1.82 million cash on hand.

Democrat LuAnn Bennett faces persistent residency questions, as well as a tax evasion complaint resulting from hazy details on when she lived at her condominium at the Washington, DC Ritz-Carlton and her palatial estate in rural Virginia (which is located outside of the 10th District). Bennett has claimed that she never lived in her DC condo, despite its location just blocks from her downtown office and having never claimed rental income from the property until her recent move to McLean. Bennett will also face an uphill climb financially, as she has just 1/3 of Comstock’s cash on hand total, with $627,000 available.

Overview: PVI: R+2; Romney 49.8%; The District covers the DC exurbs, including all of Clarke, Frederick, and Louden counties, the cities of Manassas, Manassas Park, and Winchester, and portions of Fairfax and Prince William counties.  The Cook Political Report rates this race as “Lean Republican” and the Rothenberg Political Report rates this race as “Lean Republican.”


The following are the unofficial results from Tuesday’s primary election in Virginia.

*Indicates Winner determined by AP

VA-02 – GOP Primary   

180 of 180 Precincts Reporting (100%)

Scott Taylor*          53%

Randy Forbes          41%

Pat Cardwell            7%


Barbara Comstock       Uncontested

LuAnn Bennett              Uncontested