June 29, 2016

DATE: JUNE 29, 2016


After suffering a disastrous 2014 election cycle in New York State, Washington Democrats are headed into 2016 still trying to figure out what went wrong for the party of Pelosi. From Suffolk County to across Upstate, voters rejected the Democratic platform of bigger government and higher taxes. With the 2016 congressional primary a day behind us, Democrats appear destined to suffer the same fate thanks to uninspiring candidates, retirements, and recruitment failures. This will severely impede House Democrats’ ability to fulfill their promise to make substantial gains in the House.

NY-03: Jack Martins, R vs. Tom Suozzi, D

Republican Jack Martins instantly makes this open swing seat the top pickup opportunity for Republicans in the Northeast. Martins has held a Democratic-leaning state senate seat since 2010. During that time, Martins fought to repeal the MTA payroll tax on tens of thousands of Long Island businesses, fought to increase local school funding by tens of millions of dollars and cut the state income taxes to their lowest rates in over 60 years.

Democrats are left with political retread and former Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, who hasn’t won a general election in over a decade. Suozzi’s tenure as county executive was so disastrous that an independent state financial oversight agency publicly criticized his mishandling of Nassau County finances. 

Overview: PVI: Even; Obama 50.76% – Romney 48.21%. New York’s 3rd Congressional District is located on the North Shore of Long Island covering portions of Queens, Nassau County, and Suffolk County. The Cook Political Report rates this race as “Toss Up” and the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report rates this race as “Toss Up/Tilt Democrat.”

NY-11: Dan Donovan, R vs. Richard Reichard, D

Republican Dan Donovan has hit the ground running in Congress, leading the fight to permanently extend the James L. Zadroga 9/11 Health and Compensation Act so that September 11th first responders now receive lifetime treatment for their health problems related to their work at Ground Zero. Prior to being elected last May, Donovan served as the Staten Island District Attorney where he made his community safer by aggressively prosecuting drunk drivers, toughening laws against domestic violence offenders, and creating a national prescription drug database.

Democrats, however, are left with retired city employee Richard Reichard, who has $2,599.92 cash on hand, as their nominee. That is quite the embarrassment for DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Luján, who on the night of Donovan’s special election landslide victory said that Donovan was nothing more than “a seat warmer” and that Democrats would win the seat in November.

Overview: PVI: R+2; Obama 51.59% – Romney 47.32%. New York’s 11th Congressional District covers all of Staten Island and parts of Southern Brooklyn. The Cook Political Report rates this race as “Solid Republican” and the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report rates this race as “Safe Republican.”

NY-19: John Faso, R vs. Zephyr Teachout, D

After a convincing primary victory, John Faso will look to continue his momentum in the general election by touting his record as a public servant. Faso fought to protect Hudson Valley taxpayers from the tax-and-spend policies of the New York City-dominated State Assembly as the Assembly Minority Leader. Faso was also one of the first people to champion the idea of a property tax cap which has since become law.

Democrats are taking a page out of their failed 2014 playbook by nominating Zephyr Teachout. Similar to Sean Eldridge in 2014, Teachout only recently purchased a home in NY-19 to run for Congress. Teachout will have to answer for her 2014 gubernatorial campaign platform where she called for $14 billion in higher taxes despite having well-publicized tax evasion issues where she claimed Vermont residency to avoid New York State taxes.

Overview: PVI: D+1; Obama 52.12% – Romney 45.85%. New York’s 19th Congressional District is located in the Hudson Valley north of New York City and south of Albany. The Cook Political Report rates this race as “Toss Up” and the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report rates it as “Lean Republican.”

NY-21: Elise Stefanik, R vs. Mike Derrick, D

After becoming the youngest woman ever elected to Congress, Elise Stefanik has quickly established herself as an effective representative. Stefanik is a staunch supporter of Fort Drum, which is the largest single site employer in NY-21. As an NDAA conferee, Stefanik secured millions of dollars in funding for the military base and protected it from budget cuts. Stefanik has been a prolific fundraiser with over $1.23 million cash on hand.

Democrat Mike Derrick has been so uninspiring that he is the only candidate in the entire country not elevated to the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program. Derrick has been hampered by his positions, including his support for President Obama’s veto of the NDAA, the Iran nuclear deal, and the closure of GITMO. Derrick has $277,000 cash on hand.

Overview: PVI: Even; Obama 52.24% – Romney 46.07%. New York’s 21st Congressional District is located in Northern New York and includes cities of Ogdensburg, Plattsburgh, and Watertown. The Cook Political Report rates this race as “Likely Republican” and the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report rates this race as “Safe Republican.”

NY-22: Claudia Tenney, R vs. Kim Myers, D

Republican Claudia Tenney is battle tested and ready for the general election after a decisive primary victory. Tenney has an established record in the New York State Assembly where she repeatedly voted against tax increases and has introduced bills to reduce taxes. She also is a protector of Second Amendment rights and was one of the first to sponsor a bill to fully repeal the SAFE Act.

Democrats are left with a lackluster candidate in Broome County Legislator Kim Myers. Myers is an heiress to a company that made hundreds of millions of dollars after fleeing New York State – and taking hundreds of jobs out of NY-22 in the process – for lower taxes in Pennsylvania. Myers has subsequently voted to repeatedly raise property taxes on the Vestal Central School Board and advocated for tax increases last year as a county legislator.

Overview: PVI: R+3; Obama 48.76% – Romney 49.24%. New York’s 22nd Congressional District is located in Central New York and includes the cities of Utica, Rome, Cortland, and Binghamton. Both the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report rate it as “Toss Up.”

NY-24: John Katko, R vs. Colleen Deacon, D

John Katko has been an extremely effective member of Congress who has worked in a bipartisan fashion to deliver results for Central New York. In his first term as a Congressman, Katko has already had 13 bills pass the House, including two which have been signed into law by President Obama. Katko also served as a conferee to get the first long-term highway bill passed in nearly a decade that will provide hundreds of millions of dollars for highways and infrastructure needs in Central New York. With $1.15 million cash on hand, Katko is well-funded for the general election.

Democrats are left with Colleen Deacon who limped away from a crowded Democratic primary. Deacon’s campaign will essentially be starting from scratch with just over $82,000 cash on hand despite Senator Kirsten Gillibrand fundraising on Deacon’s behalf.

Overview: PVI: D+5; Obama 57.05% – Romney 41.09%. New York’s 24th Congressional District is located in Central New York and includes the City of Syracuse. Both the Cook Political Report and the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report rate it as “Toss Up.”


The following are unofficial results from Tuesday’s primary elections in New York.

*Indicates winner determined by AP

NY-03 – GOP

Jack Martins*                       Uncontested

NY-03 – DEM Primary

629 of 630 Precincts Reporting (99%)

Tom Suozzi*                                     36%

Steve Stern                                       22%

Jon Kaiman                                        22%

Anna Kaplan                                      15%

Jonathan Clarke                                 5%

NY-11 – GOP 

Dan Donovan*                     Uncontested

NY-11 – DEM

Richard Reichard*              Uncontested

NY-19 – GOP Primary

482 of 508 Precincts Reporting (95%)

John Faso*                                        67%

Andrew Heaney                              33%

NY-19 – DEM Primary

482 of 508 Precincts Reporting (95%)

Zephyr Teachout*                         71%

Will Yandik                                         29%

NY-21 – GOP 

Elise Stefanik*                     Uncontested

NY-21 – DEM

Mike Derrick*                     Uncontested

NY-22 – GOP Primary

555 of 555 Precincts Reporting (100%)

Claudia Tenney*                             41%

Steve Wells                                       34%

George Phillips                                25%

NY-22 – DEM

Kim Myers*                          Uncontested

NY-24 – GOP 

John Katko*                          Uncontested

NY-24 – DEM Primary

323 of 324 Precincts Reporting (99%)

Colleen Deacon*                             49%

Eric Kingston                                     32%

Steve Williams                                 19%