ICYMI: KSTP/SurveyUSA: Paulsen Holds Big Lead in 3rd District
A new poll confirms what everyone not employed by the DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department knew months ago: Erik Paulsen has a commanding lead over Terri Bonoff in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District.
With 3 weeks to go before Election Day, Paulsen holds a double-digit lead over Bonoff, leads among both men and women, and has a 51% approval rating in the district. To make matters worse for Bonoff, the latest round of fundraising numbers are in, and show that Paulsen has a better than 10-1 cash on hand advantage heading into the home stretch.
NRCC Comment: “Rep. Erik Paulsen has been a tireless advocate for Minnesotans in Congress, so it should come as no surprise that he is in position to be reelected to another term. National Democrats’ misleading attacks have failed, because 3rd District voters know Erik Paulsen and have watched him fight for them and the issues they care about in Congress.” – NRCC Spokesman Bob Salera
KSTP/SurveyUSA: Paulsen Holds Big Lead in 3rd District
KSTP
Tom Hauser
October 16, 2016
http://kstp.com/politics/kstpsurveyusa-paulsen-holds-big-lead-in-3rd-district/4292879/
After several months of withering attacks trying to tie him to Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, Erik Paulsen holds a commanding lead in his race with 3rd District challenger Terri Bonoff. In our exclusive KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, Paulsen leads Bonoff 49 percent to 38 percent. Another 13 percent remain undecided.
“Democrats have not been successful in equating Paulsen with Trump,” says Carleton College political science professor Steven Schier. “It’s clear that 3rd District voters are making a big distinction between those two people.”
In an ominous sign for the Trump campaign in Minnesota, he trails Hillary Clinton among “likely voters” in the 3rd District by 13 points. Clinton has 48 percent support compared to 35 percent for Trump. The poll was conducted October 10-13. That’s after the controversial videotape of Trump was released saying degrading things about women and after allegations surfaced from several women claiming that he groped them.
“This poll was conducted during a time when the national press was saying there’s a meltdown of the Trump campaign,” Schier says. “But what we see in this poll is there’s no meltdown of the Paulsen campaign.”
In fact, Paulsen leads among both male and female voters surveyed in the 3rd District. He has a 17-point lead over Bonoff among men, 53 percent to 36 percent, and a five-point lead among women, 45 percent to 40 percent. By contrast, Clinton has a narrow one-point lead over Trump among men, 40 percent to 39 percent, and a whopping lead among women, 55 percent to 32 percent.
“A lot of Republican incumbents in the House have tried to distance themselves from Trump as Erik Paulsen has for several months now and I think that’s showing up in voter evaluations,” Schier said after reviewing the poll results. “They view Paulsen very different than Trump.”
Paulsen retains 90 percent support among the Republican base compared to 84 percent of Democrats who support Bonoff. Bonoff leads among the youngest voters, but Paulsen leads by double digits among voters over age 35. Paulsen’s other base of support is with independent voters who favor him 46 percent to 35 percent over Bonoff.
The KSTP/SurveyUSA poll of 579 “likely voters” in the 3rd District also shows Paulsen with a 51 percent approval rating. Voters in the district rank the economy, terrorism/national security and health care as their three biggest concerns, in that order.
Voters in the 3rd District are also not happy about the Affordable Care Act (ACA), with 41 percent favoring its repeal. Another 37 percent says there should be changes to the ACA and 13 percent favor government-run or “universal” health care.
The survey included 29 percent Republicans, 25 percent Democrats and 43 percent who identified themselves as independents. The poll was conducted by telephone and includes both landline and cell phone users.