It’s only January…

Hi –

If the press thought John Boehner had a tea party problem during his tenure, what will they say about Speaker Pelosi whose extremist party continues to become more and more radical and is now actively working to drive her and her loyalists out?

And how will this affect shutdown negotiations and the Dems’ (un)willingness to compromise?

And it’s only January?!

Meanwhile, at the NRCC…

In case you missed it…

Group aligned with Ocasio-Cortez prepares to take out Democrats
POLITICO
Laura Barron-Lopez and Heather Caygle
1/16/2019
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/01/16/justice-democrats-primary-challenges-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-1106911

Justice Democrats, the liberal group that engineered Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s meteoric rise — hijacking the Democratic Party in the process — is ready to go to war.

The opening salvo? An eight-minute video released Wednesday starring Ocasio-Cortez and calling for a new crop of activists and community organizers to run against the Democratic machine.

“If you’re a one-term Congress member, so what?” Ocasio-Cortez says in the video. “You can make 10 years worth of change in one term if you’re not afraid.”

Justice Democrats, which orchestrated Ocasio-Cortez’s long-shot bid last year against the fourth-ranking House Democrat, Joe Crowley, hopes to replicate its success in blue districts across the country.

And they have a powerful ally on the inside in Ocasio-Cortez, who can corner her colleagues in Congress to get behind what she herself has called “radical” policies like a 70 percent tax rate on the ultra-wealthy and a “Green New Deal.” Two of Justice Democrats’ founders, Saikat Chakrabarti and Corbin Trent, are senior staffers in her office. And Chakrabarti, her chief of staff, served on the board of Justice Democrats until he resigned earlier this week.

Since her swearing-in this month, Ocasio-Cortez and her staff have tried to create distance between the 29-year-old congresswoman and Justice Democrats, claiming to not be involved in the group’s plans to mount primaries against incumbent Democrats it deems too moderate. But Wednesday’s video, featuring Ocasio-Cortez and her two senior aides discussing those very plans over coffee with Justice Democrats Executive Director Alexandra Rojas, is far from the neutral position she’s espoused.

“That combat approach is going to upset a lot of people,” said ACLU political director Faiz Shakir, a former senior adviser to Democratic Leaders Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. “What she’s suggesting is the way I’m going to get people is by carrying a stick.”

Pressed on whether Ocasio-Cortez supports the Justice Democrats’ primary effort, Trent said she’s not “focused” on its campaign. But “yes, with 70 percent of people living in a safe red or safe blue district, for most people that’s going to happen through the primary process.”

Ocasio-Cortez is not alone in her support for Justice Democrats’ efforts.

“I am part of a new era of social justice advocates that believe in accountability no matter what party you’re part of,” said newly elected Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), who was endorsed by Justice Democrats. “It’s important to have more people like us running for office and I want to support that.”

Tlaib recently infuriated her new colleagues by calling on Democrats to “impeach the motherf—er” in reference to President Donald Trump at a progressive rally.

Justice Democrats doesn’t consider itself the tea party of the left, but the group admits its impact is similar. Together with Ocasio-Cortez, the group is forcing the Democratic Party to recalibrate, shifting policy conversations leftward in response in the same way the tea party movement dragged Republicans to the right.

House Democrats may criticize Justice Democrats’ campaign as destructive or misguided, but other progressive groups are cheering them on.

As Ocasio-Cortez’s following multiplies — she has 2.4 million Twitter followers and counting — so does the the Justice Democrat movement. Every time Ocasio-Cortez pushes a 2020 contender toward one of her policy positions, Justice Democrats revels in taking the credit.

But the question remains whether the two-year-old group can deliver a repeat of Ocasio-Cortez’s stunning victory, which capitalized on a low-turnout primary and a sleeping incumbent. This time around, establishment Democrats see them coming.

“I hear members talk about [Justice Democrats] from time to time,” said Rep. Linda Sanchez (D-Calif.), a Crowley confidant and former vice-chair of the caucus. “They do wish that they would recognize that our own members aren’t the enemy. …We probably agree on 90 percent of everything.”

First on their target list is Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), an anti-abortion centrist who supported an incumbent House Republican over a Democrat in 2018 and has previously sided with the GOP on immigration.

“An outside group thinks they know south Texas politics better than I do, I think [they’re] going to find out,” Cuellar said. “My district, I’ve polled it and polled it and they are moderate and conservative Democrats.”

The group’s criteria for picking primary target is unclear and at times contradictory. Two weeks after the 2018 elections, Justice Democrats leaders said they wanted to launch primaries against more “white, male corporate Democrats similar to Joe Crowley.” But Cuellar is Latino and nowhere near as progressive as Crowley. He’s an obvious target for the liberal group because he votes with Trump more than 60 percent of the time, and is against Medicare for All.

But if Justice Democrats follows through on going after Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.) — one of their prospective targets — it would be for entirely different reasons. Rice is a progressive. She has voted with Trump just 28 percent of the time and cosponsored legislation to slash fossil fuel dependence. She is popular in her district. But Justice Democrats still has her in its sights.

“You can tacitly support Medicare for All and a Green New Deal and we still might primary you because there’s energy in the district to find someone more charismatic and compelling who is actually going to be a movement builder,” said Waleed Shahid, communications director for Justice Democrats.

Rice, in a statement to POLITICO, said “I’d gladly put up my strong progressive record against any potential challenger.”

Justice Democrats “would love to run challengers” against all the Democrats who don’t support a Green New Deal or who take corporate PAC money, Shahid said. But the organization has less than a dozen staffers who all live in different states, and no headquarters. It relies on “super volunteers” to do much of the work.

So Justice Democrats is picking targets carefully, based on a combination of factors: Is there a charismatic challenger? Is the challenger able to activate energy in the district? Are the voters in the district unhappy with their incumbent?

“On paper [Crowley] was left of center of the party,” said Shahid. “It’s important to leave room for districts like that where there’s a long-time incumbent who kind of has a machine and voters want a change and it’s hard to notice that on paper, which is why it’s hard describing what our criteria are.”

Shahid confirmed that Justice Democrats is keeping a close eye on Rice’s district, taking cues from the small, grass-roots contingent and polling released by progressive activist Sean McElwee of Data for Progress. Though McElwee operates separately from Justice Democrats, the group regularly talks to him about potential primary targets.

While its target list looks haphazard and its ideological yardstick difficult to gauge, Justice Democrats’ overarching goal has remained the same: To root out long-time pols who embody the big-tent Democratic Party and replace them with more Ocasio-Cortezes.

It’s a fight that Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairwoman Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.) and other Democratic leaders want to avoid.

“If any of our attention is diverted to primaries … it’s not what we want to do,” said Bustos, a moderate Democrat who represents a district that Trump carried. “Henry Cuellar is a hard-working member of Congress. He’s a good man, and we want to make sure he comes back. I hope we don’t have to turn our attention away from what is most important to survive with this fragile majority that we have.”

One of Justice Democrats’ endorsed candidates, Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), agreed.

“It is quite inappropriate for groups to decide on whether or not somebody deserves to represent their district. Those decisions need to come from the people that we represent,” Omar said.

Freshman Democratic Rep. Katie Hill, who flipped a red seat in southern California, survived a tough primary in which Justice Democrats backed one of her competitors.

“It’s a dangerous strategy,” Hill said of the group’s decision to single out incumbents. “Right now I think we should be focused entirely on keeping the people who just got elected, keeping our majority, winning the Senate and getting Trump out of the White House.”

Justice Democrats’ strength lies in its combative tactics, social media presence and connection to Ocasio-Cortez — not its fundraising prowess. Last cycle Justice Democrats raised $2.4 million, according to FEC filings. That doesn’t count the nearly $900,000 it helped candidates raise through small-dollar fundraising emails.

Shortly after joining Justice Democrats on a call announcing plans to launch primaries against Democrats, Ocasio-Cortez launched a leadership PAC. Those are typically used to raise money for fellow candidates and expand a member’s influence within the party. The mission of Ocasio-Cortez’s Courage to Change PAC is to support candidates “ideologically aligned” with her, but is “not for the specific purpose of” mounting primaries against incumbents.

Progressive Caucus leaders Mark Pocan (D-Wis.) and Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) have distanced themselves from Justice Democrats. And for the first time, the caucus’ fundraising arm is hiring a full-time staffer devoted to candidate recruitment in the 2020 cycle.

“If there are progressive candidates who emerge in districts, a sitting Congress member who’s doing a good job shouldn’t be worried,” Jayapal said. “I am expending zero energy in trying to recruit other candidates to run against Democrats.”