MEMO: NC-09 Election Results
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MEMO
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: NRCC Political
DATE: September 11, 2019
RE: NC-09 Election Results
Summary
Dan Bishop’s special election victory is yet another sign that congressional Republicans are poised to take back the majority.
Despite Democrat candidate Dan McCready campaigning for over two years straight and starting the race as a quasi-incumbent with nearly 100% name ID and millions of dollars in the bank, Republicans were able to win by acting early, efficiently and effectively.
This is not 2018. House Democrats now have a record they will have to defend and voters want nothing to do with their socialist agenda which will raise taxes, kill jobs and kick millions of people off their health insurance plans.
President Trump continues to be the most effective surrogate for Republicans. With President Trump at the top of the ticket, Democrats are in serious trouble. Democrats are defending 31 incumbents in districts President Trump won in 2016.
House Republican Leadership engaged with rank-and-file Members from the outset to obtain their buy-in and utilize their efforts for GOTV efforts, fundraising, list-sharing and surrogate efforts.
Strategy
The NRCC’s first priority was helping the Bishop campaign raise money to increase his name ID. The NRCC’s finance and digital teams helped the Bishop campaign quickly raise substantial hard dollars, which he used for advertising.
The second priority was eroding McCready’s image by developing an effective narrative. The NRCC research and communications teams spelled out Dan McCready’s long history of shady business dealings through a number of locally and nationally placed stories.
The third priority was motivating Republicans to vote and raising awareness of the date of the election. The RNC and President Trump were vital strategic partners in accomplishing both objectives.
Key Takeaways
Unlike 2018, all outside Republican groups were on the same message and there was no circular firing squad. Republicans will look to build on this ahead of 2020.
The NRCC IE pre-booked their entire TV budget up front leading to substantial overall savings and will continue to spend their dollars efficiently and effectively. If they had placed their schedules in the same inconsistent manner as the DCCC, the NRCC IE would have had to pay an additional estimated $530,000 due to weekly cost increases which early placement avoided. By reserving late and week-to-week, the DCCC was subject to large-scale price escalations – which the NRCC IE avoided – due to the DCCC’s indecision and lack of vision.
Beginning in June, the NRCC’s digital team successfully integrated with the Bishop campaign and their digital vendor to jumpstart their digital fundraising. Bishop also became one of the first campaigns to utilize WinRed.
WinRed will be a significant help for candidates ahead of 2020. This was the first test case for WinRed, and its ability to capitalize on President Trump’s army of small dollar donors allowed the Bishop campaign to raise a large amount of money in a very short time span.
Republican vs. Democrat Television & Radio Spending
Fueled by out of state donors, McCready benefitted from a significant cash advantage. Yet due to the efforts of the NRCC, President Trump, the RNC and other outside groups, Democrat groups were forced to come in late and spend millions of dollars on McCready’s behalf.
Republican vs. Democrat Gross Ratings Points (GRP)
While outside groups were able to make up the spending difference, the non-candidate rate on television spending led to a considerable advantage for McCready.
Conclusion
Republicans knew NC-09 would be a challenge from the outset. But unlike last cycle, the entire Republican ecosystem worked in tandem to help Congressman Bishop win.
President Trump, Vice President Pence, House Republican Leadership, the NRCC, RNC, NC GOP, Bishop campaign and GOP outside groups showed exactly why Democrats’ days in the majority are numbered. We look forward to building on this momentum and holding Democrats accountable.