NRCC MEMO: TEXAS PRIMARY RESULTS

March 4, 2020

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM: NRCC COMMUNICATIONS

DATE: MARCH 4, 2020

SUBJECT: TEXAS PRIMARY RESULTS

While the DCCC has made a lot of noise about their efforts in Texas, the NRCC remains on offense in the Lone Star state.

The Democrats’ recruiting effort in Texas has flopped, leaving the party with a slate of candidates who have either already been rejected by voters, are tainted by scandal or are too far outside the ideological mainstream to be viable (in some cases all three!).

Republicans, meanwhile, have an outstanding group of candidates who are well positioned to flip Democrat-held seats and keep conservative-leaning open seats in GOP hands. In addition, Republican incumbents have built strong reelection campaigns with an eye toward November.

Note: In primaries where no candidate received a majority, the top two candidates will advance to a runoff election on May 26, 2020.

TX-02: Dan Crenshaw (R) vs. Winner of Dem primary runoff between Elisa Cardnell and Sima Ladjevardian

Since Dan Crenshaw was elected to Congress, he has proven himself to be a strong, talented voice for a new generation of conservative leaders. Crenshaw has instantly become one of the party’s top fundraisers, raising more than $5.5 million to date and boasts $2.6 million cash on hand.

This district, which President Trump won by nearly 10 points in 2016, was always an extreme stretch for Democrats and Crenshaw’s strength as a candidate has put it out of reach.

PVI: R+11

2016 Presidential Results: Trump 52.0% – Clinton 42.8%

Ratings: Cook Political Report – Likely GOP; Inside Elections – Likely GOP

Geography: The district encompasses parts of western and northern Harris County and is entirely within the Houston DMA.

TX-07: Lizzie Fletcher (D) vs. Wesley Hunt (R)

Lizzie Fletcher ran on a promise to be a moderate and not take orders from Nancy Pelosi but has voted with her 100% of the time since taking office. Her extreme, partisan record is wildly out of step with this moderate district.

Wesley Hunt’s strong fundraising (nearly $2 million since entering the race) and sterling credentials make him one of the most exciting, dynamic Republican candidates running for Congress this cycle. Hunt’s lifetime of service to his country creates a stark contrast to Lizzie Fletcher who has only served Nancy Pelosi and her party’s socialist agenda.

PVI: R+7

2016 Presidential Results: Trump 46.8% – Clinton 48.2%

Ratings: Cook Political Report – Lean Dem; Inside Elections – Lean Dem

Geography: The district encompasses part of western Harris County and is entirely within the Houston DMA.

TX-10: Michael McCaul (R) vs. Winner of Dem primary runoff between Mike Siegel and Pritesh Gandhi

Michael McCaul is well established in this district as a statesman who knows how to get things done. Democrats will have an uphill fight against him in this Trump +10 district with the president at the top of the ticket.

In the worst-case scenario for Democrats, this long slog of a primary will continue to a May runoff. Over the course of the past several months, Mike Siegel and Pritesh Gandhi have fought over who would better represent the socialist base. Whichever socialist candidate emerges from the runoff will be broke and on record supporting the full roster of socialist policies.

PVI: R+9

2016 Presidential Results: Trump 52.4% – Clinton 42.3%

Ratings: Cook Political Report – Lean GOP; Inside Elections – Likely GOP

Geography: The district spans from Houston’s western suburbs to suburban Austin and includes all of Austin, Colorado, Fayette, Waller and Washington counties and parts of Bastrop, Harris, Lee and Travis counties. The DMA split is 55.3% Houston and 44.7% Austin.

TX-21: Chip Roy (R) vs. Wendy Davis (D)

The last time Wendy Davis appeared on the ballot she was getting utterly destroyed by Governor Greg Abbott, losing by a 20-point margin both statewide and in the 21st Congressional District. Davis has never represented any part of this district (her state senate district was based in Fort Worth). She comes into this election known as a far-left extremist whose only accomplishment was filibustering a ban on late-term abortion.

Chip Roy was elected in 2018 after emerging from a hotly contested primary election. He has successfully united Republicans in the district and ran unopposed for the GOP nomination. Roy will be a formidable candidate for reelection in this pro-Trump district.

PVI: R+10

2016 Presidential Results: Trump 51.7% – Clinton 42.2%

Ratings: Cook Political Report – Lean GOP; Inside Elections – Likely GOP

Geography: The district spans parts of the southern suburbs of Austin and northern suburbs of San Antonio, as well as much of Texas’ Hill Country. It includes all of Bandera, Blanco, Gillespie, Kendall, Kerr and Real counties and parts of Bexar, Comal, Hays and Travis counties. The DMA split is 60.2% San Antonio and 39.8% Austin.

TX-22: (OPEN) Winner of GOP primary runoff between Troy Nehls and Kathaleen Wall vs. Sri Kulkarni (D)

Sri Kulkarni was already rejected by TX-22 voters once, losing in 2018 after embracing far-left policies like socialized medicine and a gun ban so extreme it would make Beto O’Rourke blush. Kulkarni will fare no better this year, with President Trump leading the ticket in a district he carried by 8 points in 2016.

The winner of the Republican runoff will be well positioned to defeat Kulkarni in the fall. Both Nehls and Wall have built a strong organization that will be ready to mount a general election campaign on Day 1.

PVI: R+10

2016 Presidential Results: Trump 51.7% – Clinton 43.9%

Ratings: Cook Political Report – Toss Up; Inside Elections – Tilt GOP

Geography: The district is located in the southern Houston metro area, including parts of Fort Bend, Harris and Brazoria counties. It is entirely within the Houston DMA.

TX-23: (OPEN) Winner of GOP primary runoff between Tony Gonzales and Raul Reyes vs. Gina Jones (D)

Gina Jones continues Texas Democrats’ trend of nominating failed retread candidates for Congress. Jones lost to retiring Rep. Will Hurd in a hotly contested race in 2018. During that campaign, Jones’ image took on serious damage and she starts this general election remembered as a liberal carpetbagger from Washington, DC who knows nothing about the district.

Either Tony Gonzales or Raul Reyes will be a better fit for TX-23 than Jones. Both have deep roots in the district and are a closer ideological fit.

This is one of the most evenly split swing districts in the country and will continue to be a top battleground district in 2020.

PVI: R+1

2016 Presidential Results: Trump 45.9% – Clinton 49.4%

Ratings: Cook Political Report – Lean Dem; Inside Elections – Lean Dem

Geography: The district includes much of West Texas from the San Antonio metro area along the border to outside El Paso. The DMA split is 76.4% San Antonio, 12.0% El Paso, 10.1% Odessa, 1.4% San Angelo.

TX-24: (OPEN) Beth Van Duyne (R) vs. Winner of Dem primary runoff between Kim Olson and Candace Valenzuela

In the May runoff, Democrats will choose between disgraced war profiteer Kim Olson and Elizabeth Warren acolyte Candace Valenzuela. No matter who emerges, the nominee will be a bad fit for this district and will not have the financial resources to defend herself.

The Republican nominee, Beth Van Duyne, is the popular former mayor of Irving with a record of delivering for her city. Van Duyne is well positioned to keep this district in Republican hands in the next Congress.

PVI: R+9

2016 Presidential Results: Trump 50.5% – Clinton 44.3%

Ratings: Cook Political Report – Toss Up; Inside Elections – Tilt GOP

Geography: The district is in the northern part of the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area and includes parts of Tarrant, Denton and Dallas counties. It is entirely within the Dallas DMA.

TX-31: John Carter (R) vs. Winner of Dem primary runoff between Christine Mann and Donna Imam

Democrats failed to recruit a serious candidate in TX-31 because everyone they approached knew they’d have an uphill climb against John Carter.

In 2018, Carter defeated current Senate candidate MJ Hegar despite being outspent by more than 2.5 to 1. No matter which candidate emerges from the Democrat runoff, it’s clear they will not be able to raise the resources to compete against a well-established public servant like Carter, particularly with President Trump at the top of the ticket in a district he won by 12 points.

PVI: R+10

2016 Presidential Results: Trump 52.6% – Clinton 40.1%

Ratings: Cook Political Report – Lean GOP; Inside Elections – Likely GOP

Geography: The district is located in the area north of Austin and includes Williamson County and parts of Bell County. The DMA split is 66.3% Austin, 33.7% Waco.

TX-32: Colin Allred (D) vs. Genevieve Collins (R)

Colin Allred is a liberal extremist who supports the worst of the socialist agenda, including socialized medicine and sanctuary cities. He is ideologically out-of-step with this moderate district and will be forced to defend his extreme record in Congress after running on platitudes in 2018.

Genevieve Collins is a young, dynamic candidate who will provide a clear alternative to Allred’s extremism. She is a strong fundraiser and excellent communicator who will have the resources to make her case to voters this fall.

PVI: R+5

2016 Presidential Results: Trump 46.6% – Clinton 48.4%

Ratings: Cook Political Report – Lean Dem; Inside Elections – Lean Dem

Geography: The district encompasses parts of north and east Dallas County and part of Collin County. It is entirely within the Dallas DMA.

STATEWIDE ROUNDUP

The following are unofficial results from Tuesday’s primary elections in Texas.

* indicates winner determined by AP

** indicates advanced to runoff as determined by AP

TX-02 – GOP

Dan Crenshaw* Uncontested

TX-02 – DEM (95% reporting)

Sima Ladjevardian** 47.8%

Elisa Cardnell** 31.0%

Travis Olsen 21.2%

TX-07 – GOP (99% reporting)

Wesley Hunt* 61.0%

Cindy Siegel 27.1%

Maria Espinoza 5.9%

Kyle Preston 3.0%

Jim Noteware 2.0%

Laique Rehman 0.9%

TX-07 – DEM

Lizzie Fletcher* Uncontested

TX-10 – GOP

Michael McCaul* Uncontested

TX-10 – DEM (97% reporting)

Mike Siegel** 44.0%

Pritesh Gandhi** 33.1%

Shannon Hutcheson 22.9%

TX-21 – GOP

Chip Roy* Uncontested

TX-21 – DEM (100% reporting)

Wendy Davis* 86.2%

Jennie Lou Leeder 13.8%

TX-22 – GOP (99% reporting)

Troy Nehls** 40.5%

Kathaleen Wall** 19.4%

Pierce Bush 15.4%

Greg Hill 14.1%

Dan Mathews 3.0%

Bangar Reddy 1.6%

Joe Walz 1.4%

Shandon Phan 1.1%

Diana Miller 1.1%

Jon Camarillo 1.0%

Douglas Haggard 0.5%

Howard Steele 0.4%

Matt Hinton 0.4%

Brandon Penko 0.1%

Aaron Hermes 0.1%

TX-22 – DEM (96% reporting)

Sri Kulkarni* 53.1%

Derrick Reed 24.7%

Nyanza Davis Moore 14.5%

Carmine Petrillo III 7.8%

TX-23 – GOP (99% reporting)

Tony Gonzales** 28.1%

Raul Reyes** 23.3%

Alma Arrendondo-Lynch 13.2%

Ben Van Winkle 10.8%

Jeff McFarlin 10.3%

Sharon Breckenridge Thomas 6.1%

Cecil Jones 3.8%

Alia Ureste 2.5%

Darwin Boedeker 1.8%

TX-23 – DEM (100% reporting)

Gina Jones* 66.8%

Efrain Valdez 10.9%

Rosalinda Ramos Abuabara 10.8%

Ricardo Madrid 7.1%

Jaime Escuder 4.3%

TX-24 – GOP (100% reporting)

Beth Van Duyne* 64.3%

David Fegan 20.7%

Desi Maes 5.8%

Sunny Chaparala 5.6%

Jeron Liverman 3.6%

TX-24 – DEM (100% reporting)

Kim Olson** 42.8%

Candace Valenzuela** 29.8%

Jan McDowell 10.0%

Crystal Fletcher 5.4%

Richard Fleming 4.7%

Sam Vega 4.1%

John Biggan 3.2%

TX-31 – GOP (100% reporting)

John Carter* 82.3%

Mike Williams 8.6%

Christopher Wall 4.9%

Abhiram Garapati 4.2%

TX-31 – DEM (100% reporting)

Christine Eady Mann** 34.7%

Donna Imam** 30.7%

Tammy Young 14.3%

Michael Grimes 10.9%

Eric Hanke 5.9%

Dan Janjigian 3.6%

TX-32 – GOP (100% reporting)

Genevieve Collins* 52.6%

Floyd McLendon 34.2%

Jon Hollis 4.5%

Jeff Tokar 4.4%

Mark Sackett 4.4%

TX-32 – DEM

Colin Allred* Uncontested