NRCC MEMO: CALIFORNIA JUNGLE PRIMARY RESULTS
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NRCC COMMUNICATIONS
DATE: MARCH 13, 2020
SUBJECT: CALIFORNIA JUNGLE PRIMARY RESULTS
Powered by an outstanding group of top-tier candidates, Republicans are poised to win back congressional seats in California. In several races, California Republicans are routinely outraising their Democrat opponents and are in a prime position to hold Democrats accountable for the socialist policies hurting California families.
The California Democrats elected to Congress in 2018 have been marred by scandal, failed to get anything done and gone all in on Washington Democrats’ socialist agenda. All six of the freshman California Democrats who flipped seats in 2018 have come out in support of socialist policies like socialized health care and will be forced to defend their radical records in Congress.
CA-10: Josh Harder (D) vs. Ted Howze (R)
Washington Democrats recruited venture capitalist Josh Harder from San Francisco and his voting record proves it. This election cycle, Harder will have to defend his support for government-run health care and putting Nancy Pelosi and the socialist Democrats before the moderate district he’s supposed to represent.
Meanwhile, Republican candidate Ted Howze is a lifelong resident of the Central Valley, who understands the needs of Central Valley voters. He has the financial resources and ability to prosecute Harder’s out-of-touch record in Washington and flip this seat back to Republican.
PVI: Even
2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 45.5% Clinton: 48.5% (+3)
Ratings: Cook Rating – Lean Democrat; Inside Elections – Likely Democrat
Geography: California’s 10th Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes Stanislaus County and southern San Joaquin County.
CA-21: TJ Cox (D) vs. David Valadao (R)
TJ Cox is an extremely flawed and corrupt candidate who has embarrassed his constituents by engaging in shady business dealings, refusing to pay his taxes and getting caught using his congressional office for personal gain. Both Cox’s business and legislative records will continue to be thoroughly vetted so CA-21 voters don’t make the same mistake twice.
Former Congressman David Valadao remains popular in the district he served for eight years and it shows: he consistently outraises TJ Cox and has more cash-on-hand. Valadao will have the resources he needs to ensure voters know what a corrupt crook TJ Cox is and that is why Republicans will take back this seat in 2020.
PVI: D+5
2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 39.7% Clinton: 55.2% (+16)
Ratings: Cook Rating – Toss Up; Inside Elections – Tilts Democrat
Geography: California’s 21st Congressional District is located in the south-central portion of the state and includes Kings County and parts of Fresno, Tulare and Kern counties.
CA-22: Phil Arballo (D) vs. Devin Nunes (R)
This is a solid Republican district that will remain Republican this November. Phil Arballo wants to impeach President Trump and would go to Washington to enact House Democrats’ socialist agenda.
Devin Nunes is a conservative Republican who stands with President Trump. He is a prolific fundraiser who will have the resources to make his case to voters and win this district.
PVI: R +8
2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 51.3% (+10) Clinton: 41.7%
Ratings: Cook Rating – Likely Republican; Inside Elections – Solid Republican
Geography: California’s 22nd Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes parts of Fresno and Tulare counties.
CA-25: Christy Smith (D) vs. Mike Garcia (R)
Christy Smith is just another Katie Hill clone. Both Hill and Smith support socialized health care, higher taxes and putting Nancy Pelosi and the socialist Democrats ahead of their constituents. Smith has even touted Hill’s endorsement and accepted campaign contributions from the scandal-plagued former Congresswoman.
Mike Garcia grew up in California’s 25th Congressional District. He is a highly decorated military officer and was one of the first Super Hornet Strike Fighter pilots in the Navy. Garcia’s ideology and military background make him a perfect fit for this defense heavy district.
Garcia’s ability to secure his place in both general elections despite the onslaught of negative ads from the DCCC prove his viability as a candidate.
There is a long history of Republicans winning this congressional district. Highlighting the Democrat candidate’s socialist policies and capitalizing on Hill’s embarrassing antics will be key to a Garcia win.
NOTE: Both the special election and jungle primary for the November election were on the March 3rd ballot. Smith and Garcia were the top two candidates in both races and will face off in the May 12, 2020 special runoff election and the November 3, 2020 general election.
PVI: Even
2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 43.7% Clinton: 50.3% (+7)
Ratings: Cook Rating – Likely Democrat; Inside Elections – Likely Democrat
Geography: California’s 25th Congressional District is located in the southern portion of the state and includes part of Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
CA-39: Gil Cisneros (D) vs. Young Kim (R)
Gil Cisneros proudly voted to support self-avowed socialist Bernie Sanders in 2016 and he has the voting record in Washington to support his socialist leanings. Cisneros supports a socialist takeover of our health care system and his extreme liberal views are ideologically out-of-touch with California’s 39th Congressional District.
Young Kim is a dynamic candidate who consistently outraises Gil Cisneros and has more cash-on-hand. GOP turnout is expected to increase in 2020 compared to 2018 which will push Kim to victory after coming up short by the narrowest of margins in 2018.
PVI: Even
2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 42.9% Clinton: 51.5% (+8)
Ratings: Cook Rating – Lean Democrat; Inside Elections – Likely Democrat
Geography: California’s 39th Congressional District is located in the southern portion of the state and includes part of Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernardino counties.
CA-48: Harley Rouda (D) vs. Michelle Steel (R)
Harley Rouda is a socialist Democrat masquerading as a moderate. Rouda supports socialized health care which would abolish private health insurance for millions of Americans. Rouda’s voting recording and rhetoric are completely out of step with this conservative district and will cost him his seat this November.
Michelle Steel is the Chairwoman of the Orange County Board of Supervisors and has the biography and record to win in this district. She consistently outraises Harley Rouda and will have the resources she needs to win in November. Additionally, Republicans hold a voter registration advantage of about six points, or 25,000 votes, in CA-48.
NOTE: In 2018, the GOP nominees for governor, secretary of state and attorney general all won California’s 48th Congressional District.
PVI: R +4
2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 46.2% Clinton: 47.9% (+1.7)
Ratings: Cook Rating – Lean Democrat; Inside Elections – Lean Democrat
Geography: California’s 48th Congressional District is located in the southern portion of the state and includes most of the Orange County coast.
CA-49: Mike Levin (D) vs. Brian Maryott (R)
Mike Levin is completely out-of-touch with this district, putting his own ideology ahead of his constituents. Levin is a cosponsor of the Green New Deal, a $93 trillion socialist government takeover of the economy, and socialized health care, which would abolish private health insurance for millions of Americans. His far-left record has no place in Southern California.
Brian Maryott is the Mayor of San Juan Capistrano. His conservative principles stand in stark contrast to the socialist agenda Levin has adopted.
PVI: R +1
2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 46.2% Clinton: 47.9% (+1.7)
Ratings: Cook Rating – Likely Democrat; Inside Elections – Solid Democrat
Geography: California’s 49th Congressional District is located in the southern portion of the state and includes southern Orange County and western San Diego County.
CA-50: Campa-Najjar (D) vs. Darrell Issa (R)
This is a solid Republican district that will remain Republican this November. Campa-Najjar is retread candidate who lost to Duncan Hunter in 2018 despite record turnout among Democrats. Campa-Najjar is a socialist Democrat who would support Nancy Pelosi and her socialist agenda in Washington.
Darrell Issa is a conservative Republican who will have the resources to make his case to voters and win this district.
PVI: R +11
2016 Presidential Results: Trump: 54.6% (+15) Clinton: 39.6%
Ratings: Cook Rating – Solid Republican; Inside Elections – Solid Republican
Geography: California’s 50th Congressional District is located in the southern portion of the state and includes much of San Diego County and portions of Riverside County.