FL-26 was just moved from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat” because of strong GOP recruitment.
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House Rating Changes: Fall Outlook Shifts in 10 Districts
Cook Political Report
March 27, 2020
FL-26: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) – South: Homestead, The Keys, The Everglades
Lean Democratic. It looked like Mucarsel-Powell might cruise to victory after former GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo, whom she defeated 51 percent to 49 percent in 2018, announced he wouldn’t seek a comeback. But Republicans got new life here in January when two-term Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez, who is term-limited in 2020, declared he would run and bring his universal name recognition to the race.
Gimenez, 65, is regarded as a moderate who won reelection to his nonpartisan county post with 56 percent in 2016. Although he has long identified as a Republican and has run on cutting taxes, he said that fall that he was voting for Hillary Clinton. Even so, President Trump tweeted his endorsement of Gimenez upon his launch after House GOP strategists stressed Gimenez is the party’s only hope here.