NRCC MEMO: OHIO PRIMARY RESULTS
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NRCC COMMUNICATIONS
DATE: APRIL 29, 2020
SUBJECT: OHIO PRIMARY RESULTS
Ohio, once a perennial swing state, is now a red state and will remain red in 2020. In the wave election year of 2018, the GOP held all their Ohio seats and this cycle will be no different. Republicans are helped by strong incumbents in the 1st, 10th, and 12th Congressional Districts and will be further boosted by President Trump at the top of the ticket in districts he won in 2016. The Democrats’ support of socialism will doom their chances of making any electoral inroads in the Buckeye state.
OH-01: Steve Chabot (R) vs. Kate Schroder (D)
Steve Chabot is a known leader in OH-01 and has led efforts to reduce the regulatory burden on Ohio’s small businesses, and to combat the opioid epidemic. In 2018, he prevailed against a tough challenger and is prepared to win again in 2020. This district was handily won by President Trump, who will further strengthen Chabot’s chances for reelection.
The Democrats are left with Kate Schroder, a Clinton crony, whose war chest was drained during the primary. Schroder will be forced to embrace the Democrats’ socialist agenda, which includes decriminalizing illegal immigration and banning private health insurance, obliterating her chances of winning this Republican seat.
PVI: R+5
2016 Presidential Results: Trump 51.2% – Clinton 44.6%
Ratings: Cook Political Report – Lean R; Inside Elections – Lean R
Geography: The district is located in the southwestern corner of the state and includes Warren County and parts of Hamilton County. It is entirely within the Cincinnati DMA.
OH-10: Mike Turner (R) vs. Desiree Tims (D)
Mike Turner is a lifelong Ohioan who has a record of fighting for the state’s hardworking families and will have no problem keeping this seat, which he won by 14 points in 2018 and President Trump won in 2016. Turner is bolstered by his significant cash advantage and solid campaign organization.
Democrats have failed to recruit a formidable candidate to counter Turner. Desiree Tims’ campaign coffers are empty and she is completely unknown in the district. Tims will own the socialist Democrats’ extreme agenda which will destroy her chances of winning this solid Republican seat.
PVI: R+4
2016 Presidential Results: Trump 51% – Clinton 44%
Ratings: Cook Political Report – Solid R; Inside Elections – Safe R
Geography: The district is based in southwestern Ohio and consists of Montgomery, Greene, and Fayette counties. It is entirely within the Dayton DMA.
OH-12: Troy Balderson (R) vs. Alaina Shearer (D)
Troy Balderson is a true conservative and is in a strong position to win reelection in a seat which President Trump won by double digits. Balderson starts this election cycle with a significant cash advantage and a record of serving Ohioans by creating jobs and cutting taxes.
Democrats on the other hand have failed to recruit formidable candidates to challenge Balderson’s record of leadership. The best they could do was Alaina Shearer whose fundraising record has been laughable and has failed to build a robust campaign. Shearer is completely out of step with OH-12 which wants nothing to do with the Democrats’ extreme socialist agenda.
PVI: R+7
2016 Presidential Results: Trump 53.2% – Clinton 41.9%
Ratings: Cook Political Report – Solid R; Inside Elections – Likely R
Geography: The district is in central Ohio and encompasses Delaware County, Morrow County, and Licking County, along with parts of Franklin, Marion, Muskingum, and Richland counties. The DMA is split 89% in Columbus and 11% in Cleveland.
STATEWIDE ROUNDUP
The following are unofficial results from the primary elections in Ohio.
* indicates winner determined by AP
OH-01 – GOP
Steve Chabot* Uncontested
OH-01 – DEM
Kate Schroder* 67.7%
Nikki Foster 32.3%
OH-10 – GOP
Mike Turner* 86.5%
John Anderson 7.9%
Kathi Flanders 5.6%
OH-10 – DEM
Desiree Tims* 70.0%
Eric Moyer 30.0%
OH-12 – GOP
Troy Balderson* 84.1%
Tim Day 15.9%
OH-12 – DEM
Alaina Shearer* 58.7%
Jenny Bell 41.3%