NRCC MEMO: FLORIDA PRIMARY RESULTS
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NRCC COMMUNICATIONS
DATE: AUGUST 19, 2020
SUBJECT: FLORIDA PRIMARY RESULTS
Florida is a battleground state that has been trending red and includes prime pickup opportunities for Republicans.
Incumbent Democrats campaigned as moderates who would work across the aisle, but they have repeatedly caved to their extreme party. This is especially worrisome for Democrats in South Florida where incumbents have supported a socialist agenda in Washington while representing many constituents who have fled socialist regimes.
Incumbent Republicans has been steadfast leaders for their communities and face lackluster challengers who can barely cobble together a campaign. These members will also be boosted by President Trump at the top of the ticket who won this state in ’16.
FL-07: Leo Valentin (R) vs. Stephanie Murphy (D)
Stephanie Murphy is not the moderate she claims to be. When push comes to shove, she caved to her extreme party and supported the baseless impeachment of President Trump and failed to stand up to her party when they were holding coronavirus aid hostage. Additionally, she has little connection to the Hispanic community in this district, making her vulnerable.
Leo Valentin is a perfect fit for this district. He was born in Puerto Rico and has strong ties to the Puerto Rican community in FL-07. Valentin has served his community as a physician and will continue that same sense of service in Washington, unlike Murphy who bows to her political party.
PVI: EVEN
2016 Presidential Results: Trump 44.1% – Clinton 51.4%
Ratings: Cook Political Report – Solid D; Inside Elections – Solid D
Geography: The district includes all Seminole County and much of northern Orange County, including downtown Orlando, Maitland, Winter Park, and the University of Central Florida. It is entirely within the Orlando DMA.
FL-13: Anna Paulina Luna (R) vs. Charlie Crist (D)
Charlie Crist is the very definition of a career politician who cares more about his career and political party than representing Floridians. He joined the DCCC leadership team, tying him to the Washington Democrats’ radical agenda that includes eliminating employer-based health insurance.
In the past, Crist has a benefited from weak challengers, but he will not have that advantage this cycle. Anna Paulina Luna has proven she can fundraise and run a formidable campaign. She is veteran who will always serve America, not a political party like Charlie Crist.
PVI: D +2
2016 Presidential Results: Trump 46.4% – Clinton 49.6%
Ratings: Cook Political Report – Solid D; Inside Elections – Solid D
Geography: This district includes St. Petersburg, Largo, and Clearwater. It is entirely within the Tampa DMA.
FL-15: Scott Franklin (R) vs. Alan Cohn (D)
The Democrats have zero chance at winning this Republican district. Scott Franklin is a veteran with a history of leadership in Florida. He will be further boosted by President Trump at the top of ticket who won this district by double digits.
Alan Cohn will be forced to own the Democrats’ socialist agenda which includes eliminating employer-based health care and decriminalizing illegal immigration. This platform will make Cohn unelectable in this red district.
PVI: R+6
2016 Presidential Results: Trump 53% – Clinton 43%
Ratings: Cook Political Report – Lean R; Inside Elections – Lean R
Geography: This district includes the northern parts of Hillsborough and Polk counties as well as the southernmost parts of Lake. The district is split 15% in the Orlando DMA and 85% in Tampa DMA.
FL-16: Vern Buchanan (R) vs. Margaret Good (D)
It is embarrassing the Democrats are even pretending this Republican district is competitive. Vern Buchanan has been an extremely effective representative for Floridians and has had 22 legislative initiatives signed into law under three Presidents since his first term in Congress. His leadership will propel him to victory, and he will be further helped by President Trump who won this district by ten points.
This stands in stark contrast to Margaret Good whose campaign has been floundering. Whether its sharing a racist video, violating election law or losing her top donor, Good’s campaign has been an outright disaster. On top of this, she is the DCCC’s chosen candidate and will own their socialist agenda, making her completely unelectable in this red district.
PVI: R+7
2016 Presidential Results: Trump 53.7% – Clinton 43%
Ratings: Cook Political Report – Likely R; Inside Elections – Likely R
Geography: This district includes 25% Hillsborough County, 45% Manatee County, and 30% Sarasota County. It is entirely within the Tampa DMA.
FL-18: Brian Mast (R) vs. Pam Keith (D)
Brian Mast is unbeatable, period. He is a recognized leader in the community especially on water issues. Even environmental groups that typically do not support Republicans are backing Brian Mast. He has a moderate image that has help him outperform the rest of the GOP ticket in this Trump +9 district in ’16 and ’18 and this year will be no different.
Pam Keith is a far-left radical who supports the Democrats’ socialist agenda which includes eliminating private health insurance making her unelectable in this red district.
PVI: R+5
2016 Presidential Results: Trump 53.3% – Clinton 44.1%
Ratings: Cook Political Report – Solid R; Inside Elections – Solid R
Geography: The district includes Port St. Lucie, Fort Pierce, Stuart, and Jupiter. It is entirely within the West Palm DMA.
FL-26: Carlos Gimenez (R) vs. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is in a fight for her political career against Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez. Mucarsel-Powell is already losing in the polls and she won this seat by fewer than 5,000 votes making her extremely vulnerable. She is one of the most partisan members of Congress who has consistently bowed to the socialists in Washington instead of fighting for Floridians. Her ties to a Ukrainian oligarch are not going away as her husband’s shady connections to the warlord continue to bring bad press for the Congresswoman.
Carlos Gimenez is extremely well known in this district. As a firefighter, administrator and public servant, Gimenez has dedicated his life to serving his community. Unlike Debbie, Gimenez has a history of leadership that includes bringing Miami-Dade taxpayers the largest tax cut in the county’s history which saved families more than $1700 per household. Floridians know Carlos Gimenez will serve them in Washington, not a political party, like Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.
PVI: D+6
2016 Presidential Results: Trump 40.5% – Clinton 56.8%
Ratings: Cook Political Report – Toss up; Inside Elections – Tilt D
Geography: The district includes all of Monroe County as well as a portion of south-west Miami-Dade County. It is entirely within the Miami DMA.
FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar (R) vs. Donna Shalala (D)
Donna Shalala is an elite Washington insider who cannot be trusted to represent South Florida. She willfully broke federal law and sides with Nancy Pelosi’s socialist agenda 100% of the time. She has cozied up to Castro sympathizers and is loyal to the socialists in Washington making her vulnerable in a district where many constituents fled socialist regimes. Additionally, Shalala benefited from a third-party candidate last cycle and she will not have that advantage again.
Unlike Shalala, Maria Elvira Salazar has a strong connection to Miami’s Cuban community and her career as a journalist has made her extremely well known in this district. Salazar’s family fled Castro’s socialist regime which has shaped her conviction to fight for freedom and against socialism.
PVI: D+5
2016 Presidential Results: Trump 38.9% – Clinton 58.5%
Ratings: Cook Political Report – Likely D; Inside Elections – Solid D
Geography: The district is entirely within Miami-Dade County. It includes all or part of Miami, Miami Beach, Coral Gables, and Kendall. It is entirely within the Miami DMA.