Poll: TX-23 is a toss up
A new poll shows that despite spending millions on TV ads, Gina Jones leads by just one point in TX-23, one of the most competitive congressional races in the country.
Click HERE to view the polling memo.
In case you missed it…
Ortiz Jones just 1 point ahead of Gonzales in Texas House race despite cash advantage: Poll
Washington Examiner
Emily Larsen
October 7, 2020
The race for Texas’s open House seat in the 23rd Congressional District is statistically tied, according to a polling memo obtained by the Washington Examiner, despite Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones having a cash advantage over Republican Tony Gonzales.
A Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted on behalf of Gonzales’s campaign found Ortiz Jones slightly in the lead with 42% support, while Gonzales had 41% support.
The poll was conducted among 400 voters in the district reached by telephone from Saturday to Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Half of the interviews were conducted on cellphones, and 17% of the interviews were in Spanish.
The poll is an encouraging sign for Gonzales, who is being outpaced by Ortiz Jones in fundraising.
Earlier this week, the Ortiz Jones campaign announced that she raised $1.7 million in the third quarter of the year from July through September. Gonzales said that he raised $1 million during the same period.
As of June 30, Gonzales had $390,927 in cash-on-hand, while Ortiz Jones had just over $3 million.
The Texas district, which borders Mexico and runs from El Paso to San Antonio, is a top target for Democrats in 2020 as they hope to expand their House majority, while Republicans fight to keep the district. Current Republican Rep. Will Hurd is vacating his seat at the end of his term.
The poll found a bright spot for Gonzales among independent voters, leading Jones 36% to 32%, and among voters who have heard of both candidates, 50% to 40%.
“The information flow in the race also favors Gonzales. Jones and her allies have spent a massive amount in the race to date, but still are not having their desired impact,” Nicole McCleskey of Public Opinion Strategies said in the memo. “Based on what voters are hearing in the campaign, 27% are more favorable to Gonzales and 13% less favorable (+14 information flow). Gina Jones’ information flow is 27% more favorable and 20% less favorable (+7 information flow).”
This is Ortiz Jones’s second run for the House seat, having narrowly lost to Hurd in 2018.
Both candidates are veterans who were deployed to Iraq. Ortiz Jones was an Air Force intelligence officer, and Gonzales was a Navy cryptologist.
The last Public Opinion Strategies poll of the district conducted in August also found Ortiz Jones ahead by just 1 point, 41% to 40%.