LA Times: Dems’ “perilous outlook” for midterms

June 7, 2021

The LA Times is out with a new story on Democrats’ “perilous outlook” for the midterms. The story highlights three reasons House Democrats are likely to lose their majority: history, retirements, and redistricting.  

In case you missed it…

Democrats brace for 2022 elections with ‘little margin for error’

Los Angeles Times

Janet Hook

June 7, 2021

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2021-06-07/democrats-brace-for-2022-elections-with-little-margin-for-error

WASHINGTON — Democrats are at high risk of losing control of Congress next year, and the perilous outlook is shaping party strategy on every level, a modern illustration of the old saw: Nothing focuses the mind like the sight of the gallows.

History


The president’s party usually loses seats in Congress midterm. Among the big wipeouts: Under President Obama in 2010, Democrats lost control of the House in a tea-party fueled wave. In 1994, under President Clinton, Republicans took control of the House and Senate for the first time in 40 years.

In midterms over the last century, the president’s party gained House and Senate seats only twice, both in times of national distress — in 1934, during the Depression under Franklin D. Roosevelt; and in 2002, when President Bush was enjoying post-Sept. 11 popularity. Some Democrats hope for a 2002-like scenario if Biden succeeds in leading the country out of the pandemic.

Retirements


Republicans see opportunity to expand the 2022 battleground as five House Democrats have already announced they would not run for reelection. That’s not an unusually large number of retirements this far in advance, and fewer than the number of Republicans who have called it quits. But the Democratic departures come from battleground states with increased risk of a GOP takeover — including Florida, where Rep. Charlie Crist is running again for governor, and Ohio, where Rep. Tim Ryan is running for Senate. Among the Republicans who have announced they are retiring, all but one come from solidly red districts.

Redistricting

Disruption always follows the post-Census redrawing of congressional district lines to reflect population shifts. The uncertainty is compounded this year because completion of the Census was delayed by the pandemic and by the Trump administration’s unsuccessful efforts to exclude undocumented immigrants from the count, both of which may have also affected the response rate.

Both parties, given a chance, gerrymander districts to their advantage, but Republicans’ dominance of state legislatures 10 years ago gave them a huge advantage. This year, the process is somewhat less vulnerable to partisan gerrymandering because more states have, like California, taken the map-making job out of the hands of elected officials. According to the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, 173 House districts will be drawn by states with an independent commission or other nonpartisan process — up from 88 a decade ago.

But Republicans still have a “trifecta” — control of both legislative chambers and the governor’s mansion — in four battleground states: Florida, Texas, Georgia and North Carolina. Taken together, those states are picking up four additional House seats because of reapportionment. Some analysts believe redistricting alone could clear the way for Republicans to pick up the five seats they need.

In the Senate, the outlook for Democrats is challenging but somewhat less dire. Redistricting is not an issue in statewide elections. Retirement announcements so far have been more to the GOP’s disadvantage. Five Republicans have announced their retirement; three are in the battleground states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Ohio. No Democrats have announced plans to leave.