NEW POLL: TX-34 is still a toss-up race

April 29, 2024

New polling reveals vulnerable Vicente Gonzalez in deep trouble, with swing voters leaning toward Republicans. Gonzalez is failing voters on the border and immigration, which are the two topics swing voters mark as their top priorities. As the Rio Grande Valley trends Republican, TX-34 is ripe for flipping in November.

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Swing voters could decide tight race for District 34


Mark Reagan 

April 28, 2024

Could swing voters decide the hotly contested election between Republican Mayra Flores and incumbent Democrat Vicente Gonzalez for District 34?

Do those swing voters lean toward former president and presumed GOP nominee Donald J. Trump’s border policies?

The findings of a poll sponsored by the National Republican Congressional Committee suggest this may be the case.


That document calls the race a toss-up, with Gonzalez, D-Brownsville, leading Flores 48% to 45% with 7% of voters undecided.

According to the memo, 7% of undecided swing voters prefer Trump by +12% and dislike President Joe Biden by -12% “and are voting for a Republican on the generic Congressional ballot by +24%.”

The 1892 Polling memo also said Flores has a winning environment with inflation being the top issue among undecided voters for 54% of Independents and 41% of moderates.

“Flores is already winning voters who list inflation as their top issue on both open-end and closed-end questions (+2% and +3%, respectively),” the memo states.

Securing the border is the second most important issue to the Valley district, which spans Cameron County and portions of Hidalgo and Willacy counties, according to the polling.

“Importantly, immigration is also a winning issue with the middle. By 51%-36% voters favor ‘Trump’s border policies’ over ‘Biden’s border policies,’” the memo stated. “Independents favor Trump’s policies by +10%. Among voters who prefer Trump’s border policies, Flores leads the ballot at +64%.”


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