Gavin Newsom’s Map Can’t Stop Darrell Issa
In case you missed it, California Democrats’ gerrymandering scheme may backfire because strong Republican candidates across California have repeatedly won and outperformed Democrats in blue districts.
And Republican Congressman Darrell Issa has a clear path in CA-48, with strong voter registration trends, demographic shifts, strong turnout, and Democrat infighting, which “could blunt what Democrats hoped would be a decisive redistricting advantage in the nation’s largest congressional delegation.”
“Gavin Newsom’s corrupt Democrats can redraw lines, but they can’t redraw Darrell Issa’s record of beating them in blue territory and delivering for California families with commonsense results. CA-48 isn’t their firewall, it’s a delusion.” – NRCC Spokesman Christian Martinez
NRCC Fires Back: California Democrats’ Gerrymandering Gambit May Backfire in Key GOP-Held Seats
California Globe
Megan Barth
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is pushing an aggressive counter-narrative ahead of California’s 2026 midterms, arguing that Governor Gavin Newsom and state Democrats are banking on a controversial Proposition 50 redistricting plan to flip as many as five Republican-held congressional seats – but historical voting patterns, voter registration trends, and GOP over-performance in blue districts suggest California Democrats’ gerrymandering scheme could fall flat.
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Republican strategists point out that the GOP has repeatedly won in heavily Democratic-leaning California districts when fielding strong candidates. In 2020, Joe Biden carried 46 of California’s 53 congressional districts, yet four seats that backed Biden still elected or re-elected Republicans: CA-39 (Young Kim), CA-48 (then Michelle Steel), CA-25 (Mike Garcia), and CA-21 (David Valadao).
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Even with those changes, the NRCC claims, Donald Trump would still have carried the district in 2016. In the tough 2018 midterm environment, a Republican would have won the seat by 2.4 percentage points under the new lines, and in 2022 Rep. Darrell Issa would have prevailed by more than 6 points.
Issa himself has a documented track record of outperforming Republican presidential nominees in the region.
In 2016, while Hillary Clinton won the old CA-49 by 7.4 points, Issa squeaked out a 0.5-point victory – an 8-point over-performance compared to Trump. In 2020 and again in 2024, Issa continued to run ahead of Trump by 0.2 and 3.3 points respectively.
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Perhaps most encouraging for Republicans is turnout data.
In every general election from 2018 through 2024, California Republicans have outperformed their registration numbers on Election Day.
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In a crowded CA-48 field, at least twelve Democratic candidates are vying for the nomination, including 2020 nominee Ammar Campa-Najjar, who lost to Issa by eight points and more than 28,500 votes.
Republicans are signaling confidence that demographic shifts, turnout strength, and Democratic infighting could blunt what Democrats hoped would be a decisive redistricting advantage in the nation’s largest congressional delegation.
Read more here.