NRCC MEMO: VIRGINIA PRIMARY RESULTS
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NRCC POLITICAL AND NRCC COMMUNICATIONS
DATE: JUNE 8, 2010
SUBJECT: VIRGINIA PRIMARY RESULTS
Arguably, there is no state more ripe for a congressional Republican takeover than Virginia. After Gov. Bob McDonnell swamped Democrat Creigh Deeds in the 2009 gubernatorial elections, four House Democrats are on defense – three of them freshman. One of them has even been termed the unpopular president’s “model member.” With top-tier GOP challengers now in place in all four districts, Republicans are ready to take the fight to Commonwealth Democrats this November.
Challengers:
VA-02 (Rep. Glenn Nye, D)
Rep. Glenn Nye swept into office on the tide of a Democrat-friendly turnout model and a vigorous Obama campaign to take Virginia’s electoral votes. Nye, a newcomer who had little ties to Hampton Roads when elected, faces several problems this fall. As with last year’s gubernatorial race, core Democrat turnout in Hampton Roads is expected to be down significantly in 2010. He may face personal resistance from local liberals as a result of his double-talk on cap-and-trade and healthcare.
The Obama administration and congressional Democrats also pose a potent threat to Nye as a result of their plans to stop F-22 production and move an aircraft carrier from Norfolk, Va. to Jacksonville, Fla. The Hill newspaper has said that Nye’s fate may depend on whether he can keep the job-producing carrier from being relocated. And Obama’s plans to scrap the F-22 may have a detrimental impact on Hampton Roads, where the fighter jet is housed.
Scott Rigell, who won a convincing double-digit victory in the primary tonight, is uniquely positioned to take advantage of these vulnerabilities. As a community leader, businessman and former Marine reservist, Rigell’s victory makes for the ideal contrast against Nye, who has shallow roots in Hampton Roads and has never created local jobs or served in the military.
History
George W. Bush carried Virginia’s Second District in 2004, earning 58% of the votes. John McCain earned 48% of the votes in 2008. It rates as R+14 in the Cook Partisan Voting Index.
Geography
Virginia’s Second Congressional District encompasses all of Accomack and Northampton counties. It also includes the City of Virginia Beach and parts of the cities of Norfolk and Hampton.
VA-05 (Rep. Tom Perriello, D)
Rep. Tom Perriello will be hard-pressed to win re-election in 2010. In a district with a strong “surge voter” presence, including the University of Virginia, Perriello’s upset victory (by a 727-vote margin) last year was aided mightily by Obama’s presence at the top of the ticket. Not only will he will he lack that advantage in 2010, he’ll also be facing an angry electorate. His district is experiencing the highest unemployment rate in the state. A loss of manufacturing and farming jobs has hit this rural/small-town region hard, and Perriello’s votes for the stimulus, cap-and-trade and government-run healthcare handed opponents ample ammunition to make the case that he’s made the problem worse.
Most troubling for him, however, is the emergence of a top Republican recruit: state Sen. Robert Hurt, who won an overwhelming primary victory tonight despite being outspent. As a senator and delegate, Hurt has represented over 30% of the congressional district as a popular state legislator who’s worked across the aisle to create jobs. In fact, the Democratic Party of Virginia recently praised him for helping to make Virginia the best managed state in the country and the best state for business.
History
John McCain and George W. Bush each carried Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District in 2004 and 2008, with Bush earning 56% of the vote in 2004 and McCain winning 51% in 2008. It rates as R+5 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index.
Geography
Virginia’s Fifth District is the state’s largest district, reaching or including 18 counties. It also includes the cities of Bedford, Charlottesville, Danville and Martinsville.
VA-09 (Rep. Rick Boucher, D)
A 27-year incumbent, Boucher should be safe – but he’s not, thanks to his high-profile lead role cheerleading a cap-and-trade bill that’s almost universally detested in the coalfields of Southwest Virginia. There’s no question that Boucher will be well-funded and will enjoy the advantages of long-term incumbency. But for the first time in a long while, he’s saddled with a lock-step liberal voting record in support of a president who’s deeply unpopular in his district. In fact, Boucher was one of Obama’s earliest congressional endorsements in the Democrat presidential primary.
In late May, state House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith was nominated at a convention by local Republicans to take on Boucher. Leader Griffith’s record in Richmond serves as a testament to his strong conservative values and his belief in putting Virginians first. He has been honored for his commitment to limited government, low taxes and a strong business climate. A father of three, Griffith is passionately pro-life and a fervent defender of Second Amendment rights.
History
John McCain and George W. Bush each carried Virginia’s Ninth District with wide margins in 2004 and 2008, with Bush earning 60% of the vote in 2004 and McCain performing similarly—with 59% of the vote—in 2008. It rates as R+11 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index.
Geography
The Ninth District covers the southwestern part of the state and is the second-largest district in the Commonwealth. The area includes the cities of Bristol, Galax, Norton and Radford. It also includes the counties of Grayson, Wythe, Carroll, Patrick, Tazewell, and Craig, and parts of Allegheny, Roanoke, and Henry.
VA-11 (Rep. Gerry Connolly, D)
For the last several years, Northern Virginia symbolized the exodus of suburban independents from the Republican Party. But as McDonnell’s performance in the 11th District last year indicates, the pendulum has finally begun to swing the other way. In reality, this is a true swing district – not a Democratic one.
Independent-minded Republican Rep. Tom Davis represented this district until the beginning of 2009, winning by solid margins cycle after cycle. By contrast, freshman Democrat Gerry Connolly is one of the most partisan members of the freshman class. Despite campaigning for this open seat last year as a pragmatic moderate, he’s supported every major piece of his party’s liberal agenda – the stimulus, the budget, cap-and-trade and government healthcare.
Last year, Connolly benefited from the fiercely anti-Republican political environment and a huge name recognition advantage from his days as Fairfax County Board of Supervisors Chairman. Even so, he significantly underperformed Obama on the ballot against GOP entrepreneur Keith Fimian, who was widely credited for running a strong race in a difficult climate. Fimian is back for a rematch this year after defeating Fairfax Co. Supervisor Pat Herrity, and his prospects look much better. He now enjoys name recognition that he had to spend precious resources building from scratch last year. Most importantly, the incumbent will be unable to hide behind moderate rhetoric any longer – he’ll be held accountable for his follow-the-leader voting record.
History
John McCain and George W. Bush each received roughly half of the vote in 2008 and 2004, with Bush earning 50% in 2004 and McCain earning 42% in 2008. It rates as R-2 in the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Prior to Connelly, the seat was held by Thomas Davis (R).
Geography
The Eleventh District is located in the Washington, D.C. suburbs, and is largely based in Fairfax and Prince William counties. Major communities include Annandale, West Springfield, Mount Vernon, Burke and Dale City.
Election Results:
The following are the unofficial results from Tuesday’s primary election in Virginia. These results are UNOFFICIAL AND INCOMPLETE until certified by the Virginia Board of Elections.
*Denotes winner
VA-02 (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY)
57.1% precincts in
Rigell 39%*
Loyola 24%
Misuzawa 21.9%
VA-05 (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY)
89.3% precincts in
Hurt 48.7%*
McKelvey 25.4%
McPadden 9.8%
VA-11 (REPUBLICAN PRIMARY)
69.6% precincts in
Fimian 58.1%*
Herrity 41.9%