ICYMI: New poll shows John Braun leading Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by 7
In case you missed it, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) publicly released new internal battleground polling in Washington’s 3rd District, a seat President Trump carried in 2024, showing Republican John Braun leading fraud Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by seven points in a major early warning sign for Democrats.
Read more here or see excerpts below:
New poll shows John Braun leading Marie Gluesenkamp Perez by 7 in WA-03
Seattle Red
Jason Rantz
May 8, 2026
The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) released internal district-level polling for Washington’s 3rd Congressional District for the first time this cycle, and the numbers paint a grim picture for Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
The survey, conducted by co/efficient between April 25 and 29 among 982 likely general election voters, shows State Senate Minority Leader John Braun leading Gluesenkamp Perez by seven points, 41% to 34%, with 26% still undecided. Half of all voters in the district view the congresswoman unfavorably, a net image of negative 30 points. That unfavorability reaches 49% of independents, 46% of young voters, and a third of Democrats. She is drawing only 69% of her own party on the congressional ballot, a vulnerability that analysts and Republicans alike have been tracking for months.
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“Any way you cut it, fraud Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is in serious trouble,” NRCC Spokesman Christian Martinez said. “After years of trying to rebrand herself, voters, including Democrats in her own party, are seeing through her act. The numbers make clear she’s losing support across the board while John Braun’s record as a manufacturing business owner, veteran, and proven conservative leader is giving Republicans a real opportunity to flip this seat.”
Gluesenkamp Perez has built her brand on the image of a local Washougal truck mechanic, independent from the Democratic machine and not beholden to corporate interests. Her campaign finance disclosures tell a different story. As Seattle Red has reported, the vast majority of her funding flows in from outside Washington, including from some of the most progressive-aligned money in the country.
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“Somewhere between seven and 10% of her money is coming from in state. In the last quarter, vast majority is coming from out of state, including some large bundles from New York City financiers, from the Pritzker Family in Illinois. I mean, these are high money Democrat donors who are funding her campaign. Why we have small dollar and local dollar folks who are funding our campaign? And you know, that’s, I think, reflective of, you know, her disconnect with the district.”
At 24% favorable with 56% of voters either unsure or having never heard of him, Braun has significant room to grow as name recognition builds. Cost of living is the top issue voters name in competitive district polling across the Pacific Northwest, and Gluesenkamp Perez’s votes for higher taxes give Braun a direct contrast to close the race on. Trump carried WA-03 by roughly three points in 2024, and the generic congressional ballot currently stands at 44% Republican to 45% Democrat, a near-even split that puts this squarely in candidate-contrast territory.