Political Earthquake in South Texas
Mayra Flores made history last night, flipping a majority Hispanic district in the Rio Grande Valley.
Her victory confirms there is a political earthquake going on among Hispanic voters at the southern border.
Read how the NRCC helped turn South Texas RED and why Democrats should be very worried ahead of the midterms.
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TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: JOHN BILLINGS, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
DATE: JUNE 15, 2022
RE: HOW REPUBLICANS FLIPPED A MAJORITY HISPANIC DISTRICT IN SOUTH TEXAS
OVERVIEW:
Democrats have dominated elections in the heavily Hispanic Rio Grande Valley for over 100 years. That changed when Mayra Flores won a commanding victory in TX-34, a Hispanic supermajority district.
Flores’ victory in the TX-34 Special Election is proof that Republicans have a winning message with Hispanic voters and that no Democrat is safe in the current political environment.
NRCC Chairman Tom Emmer has maintained that elections are won by having talented candidates, the right message, and enough resources. Republican efforts in TX-34 delivered on all three.
THE ENVIRONMENT:
The NRCC decided to go all-in in South Texas at the beginning of 2021 when we announced we’d be targeting TX-15, TX-28 and TX-34.
The 2020 election results showed massive Hispanic movement toward Republicans because Democrats took Hispanic voters for granted and supported unpopular policies like defunding the police. That trend has accelerated due to Republican outreach with Hispanic voters and the disastrous results of Democrats’ failed policies.
EARLY INVESTMENT:
Partnering with Mayra Flores and her campaign, the NRCC immediately recognized an opportunity following Rep. Filemon Vela’s resignation and crafted a pathway to victory focused on polling, fundraising, advertising, and ground game.
The NRCC conducted polling in April that showed the race was winnable, but found that Mayra needed to raise the resources necessary to tell her story in a compressed time frame.
To assist in that effort, the NRCC helped the Flores campaign raise over $231,500 in member money, which allowed her to outraise her Democrat opponent by nearly 10 to 1.
The NRCC and TX GOP also injected $1.1 million in paid voter contact efforts into the Flores campaign. With this investment, the Mayra Flores campaign was able to get over $1 million in TV and digital advertising in both English and Spanish. The Texas GOP’s $500,000 investment in both English in Spanish mail allowed the campaign to simultaneously persuade independents and turn out Republicans.
Lastly, Republicans’ ground game in South Texas was extremely effective. Working with the RNC and the Flores campaign, Republicans knocked over 25,000 doors, called over 120,000 voters, and sent over 500,000 text messages.
CANDIDATES MATTER:
Mayra Flores was the perfect candidate for this district because she is a product of the American Dream and her story resonated with voters.
Flores was born in Mexico and immigrated to the United States when she was young. She grew up in the Rio Grande Valley working in the cotton fields alongside her parents, and is the wife of a Border Patrol agent, a mother of four, and a frontline health care worker.
FOCUSED ON THE ISSUES:
Mayra was able to flip this district because she focused on issues that affect all voters’ lives (border security, crime, and rising costs) while Democrats focused on far-left issues.
Polling in the special election showed voters were overwhelmingly concerned about border security and the economy, which aligned well with Mayra’s background.
Additional Republican support focused on telling Mayra’s inspiring story and holding Democrats responsible for the border crisis they created and their reckless spending that has led to record-high inflation.
Nancy Pelosi’s Super PAC made a last-minute TV ad trying to tie Flores to January 6th. This did not work because it is not a topic voters are focused on. As vulnerable Pennsylvania Democrat Susan Wild told Axios: “People don’t want to hear about Donald Trump. They’re going to vote because they want to see people get sh-t done.”
CONCLUSION:
Mayra’s victory proved we have the blueprint for success in South Texas, and it sets Republicans up for even greater success in November.
This is the first of many Democrat-held seats that will flip Republican in 2022.
As President Biden’s approval rating continues to decline across the nation, Democrats are going to be forced to defend a record of failure that has resulted in higher costs, soaring crime and a crisis along the southern border.
Democrats should heed Chairman Emmer’s advice – Retire or Lose.